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SunSirs: The Cost Side has Strengthened at a High Level, with a Significant Increase in China ABS after the Spring Festival
February 28 2024 14:17:32SunSirs(Selena)

With the return of the Spring Festival, the domestic ABS market has shown a strong upward trend, and spot prices of various brands have significantly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of February 25th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11,787.50 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.8%.

In terms of supply: The domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of pre holiday load reduction and adjustment, and the current operating rate is not high. Compared with the Spring Festival period, the industry's device load has decreased by a narrow range of 2.2% to below 63%. With the decrease in operating rates of ABS aggregation enterprises, market supply is gradually tightening, and last week's inventory digestion was smooth. Overall, the supply side's support for spot goods is still acceptable.

In terms of raw materials: Within a week after the Spring Festival, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials remained stable, with two increases. Among them, the acrylonitrile market remained stable. The delayed resumption of work by downstream enterprises has a certain impact on demand, and buyers have a general attitude towards high priced goods. However, with the resumption of terminal work in the future, there is an expected increase in market sentiment. At the same time, due to the shutdown and maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the load of acrylonitrile has decreased, and there is a shortage of supply in some areas. Acrylonitrile tends to remain strong and stable in the supply-demand game, and is expected to rise in the future.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been positive. During the holiday period, the tense sentiment in the Red Sea region has raised the risk premium of crude oil, and the price of petroleum brain has also risen. Cost side boost, coupled with external price increases driving. Under the dual benefits, the domestic market atmosphere is soaring, and production enterprises are raising their supply prices.

Last week, the market price of styrene saw a slight pullback after rising. The price of raw material pure benzene has continued to rise due to the rise in crude oil, and the benefits of styrene are concentrated in the cost side pure benzene. On the other hand, downstream enterprises have resumed work slowly, while the supply pattern has remained stable with minor fluctuations. As a result, the cost side of on-site consumption has gradually improved, leading to a narrow decline in prices in the latter half of the week.

In terms of demand: One week after the Spring Festival, downstream factories, including the home appliance industry, have limited enthusiasm for stocking up on ABS's main terminals. The main logic revolves around buying in demand and digesting inventory. And there is a certain resistance to the supply of goods after the price increase, coupled with the average resumption of work by enterprises after the Spring Festival, some downstream enterprises have poor consumption. At present, ABS spot circulation is average, and the demand side has a flat impact on the market.

In the first week of returning from the Spring Festival, the overall performance of ABS upstream materials was relatively strong, providing stronger support for the cost side of ABS. Petrochemical plant operations continue to decrease, and supply pressure has significantly eased. On the demand side, due to the delayed resumption of work by downstream enterprises, ABS consumption during the cycle is average. After the merchant's offer has increased, there is a practice of offering discounts and shipping orders. The expectation of increased demand in the short term in the future is not good, and it is expected that the ABS market may be hindered in its growth.


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