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SunSirs: Cost and Supply Side Support, China BR Market Rises after the Spring Festival
February 27 2024 13:59:38SunSirs(Selena)

Recently (2.8-2.23), the market for BR has fluctuated and risen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of February 23, the market price of BR in East China was 12,850 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.05% from 12,470 RMB/ton on the 8th.

After the Spring Festival, the price of raw material butadiene has risen, and the cost center of BR has shifted upwards. During the Spring Festival, downstream tire factories have weak demand for low production, but downstream tire production has increased after the holiday, providing some support for the demand for BR; Shandong Yihua, Zhejiang Petrochemical and other BR plants have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the supply of BR. After the holiday, the increase in factory prices for enterprises, combined with the rise in BR futures prices, has supported the market atmosphere. Merchants have reported an increase in prices. As of February 23, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company's Daqing BR Northeast Warehouse has raised prices by 12,800 RMB/ton, while mainstream BR markets in eastern China, such as Daqing, Sichuan, Yangtze, Yanshan, and Qilu, have reported prices ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 RMB/ton; Private BR costs 12,500-12,700 RMB/ton.

Recently (2.8-2.23), the price of butadiene continued to rise, and the cost center of BR increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of February 23rd, the price of butadiene was 10,216 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.25% from 9,800 RMB/ton on the 8th.

Recently (2.8-2.23), the natural rubber market has fluctuated and risen, but it is not much different from the price of BR, and its impact on BR is relatively weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of February 23, the price was 12,920 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.70% from 12,580 RMB/ton on February 8.

Demand side: During the Spring Festival, downstream tire production was low, and the demand side was weak. After the Spring Festival, downstream tire production increased, providing certain support for BR. It is understood that as of February 15, 2024, the operating rates of semi steel tire and full steel tire devices have remained within 20% respectively.

SunSirs analysts believe that raw material prices will continue to rise, and the cost support for BR will strengthen. In recent days, some devices have been shut down for maintenance, reducing pressure on the supply side of BR. Downstream tire production will still operate at a moderate level. Overall, in the short term, the spot market for BR will experience a slight increase driven by costs and supply.

 

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