Price trend

During the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic PTA futures market remained silent, and CFR China's trend followed the strength of crude oil. As of February 16th, CFR China reached 778 US dollars per ton, up 2.10% from before the holiday.

Analysis review

The geopolitical crisis continued to affect supply, with crude oil continuing to strengthen and PTA cost benefits providing significant support. As of February 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 78.46 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 83.47 US dollars per barrel.

In the short term, international crude oil prices are temporarily strong, the peak of PX production has passed, and future new production capacity is limited, maintaining a tight supply situation. At the same time, the seasonal maintenance cycle of PX is approaching, so the cost side drive of PTA is still relatively strong.

With the expansion of the industry, PTA still has excess production capacity. By the end of 2023, the total production capacity of PTA reached 80.615 million tons, with a growth rate of 16.4%. The processing fee is showing a decreasing trend year by year, and some mainstream PTA suppliers have released maintenance plans for March and April, supporting the temporary healthy operation of processing fees. However, the deployment of new devices may still suppress expectations.

Market outlook

The demand for downstream polyester and terminal textiles is gradually recovering with the resumption of work during the Spring Festival. The traditional peak season in March is approaching, and domestic and foreign trade is heating up. SunSirs analysts believe that under the expectation of stronger fundamentals, PTA prices may fluctuate upward after the Spring Festival.

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