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SunSirs: Positive Supply, China Asphalt Market is Rising
January 15 2024 10:31:34SunSirs(Selena)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from January 5th to 12th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3,468 RMB/ton to 3,563 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.79%, a month on month increase of 2.72%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.10%. There are regional differences in the domestic asphalt market, with overall fluctuations and gains. Some refineries have reduced production and limited shipments. The market demand in the northern region is gradually entering the final stage, and the market transaction atmosphere is average; There is still a demand for rush work in the southern region before the holiday.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises include intermittent production in Xinhai, Jiangsu, resumption of production in Huafeng, and intermittent production in Yunnan Petrochemical. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased compared to the previous month, and there are negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures prices have weakened and consolidated within the same period. The report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday (January 10) showed an unexpected increase in commercial crude oil inventories in the US last week, with gasoline and distillate inventories growing higher than market expectations. As of January 11th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $77.41 per barrel, an increase of $0.61 or 0.8%.

On the demand side, there is a clear north-south differentiation in the demand for asphalt spot goods, with some regions in the south focusing on pre holiday rush work. However, there will still be rain and snow weather next week, which may hinder actual demand. The demand for asphalt in the market is mixed.

As of the close of January 12th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2403 opened at 3,655 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 3,688 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 3,650 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,679 RMB/ton in the last trading day, an increase of 44 RMB/ton or 1.21% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 137,725 lots, and the position was 161,184 with a daily increase of -18,364.

According to future market forecasts, as prices rise, the pace of shipments will slow down and downstream demand will vary among regions. The asphalt analyst of SunSirs predicts that the short-term domestic asphalt market will mainly consolidate.


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