Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes fell first and then rose this week. As of the weekend, the price of 20#, 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was quoted at 4,600 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.7% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 6.46%.

Analysis review

Upstream: The ex factory price of raw materials for tube billets this week was 4,880 RMB/ton, with a slight increase compared to the same period last week.

This week, the black metal futures market saw an upward trend in the long short game, and as the futures and spot prices rose over the weekend, the seamless tube market's confidence for the future market increased. After heavy snowfall in many parts of the country last week, the snow had melted this week, and roads had resumed normal transportation. In addition, some manufacturers had implemented nearby shipments, which had improved the delivery situation. This week, Liaocheng, Tangshan and other places had implemented environmental protection and production restriction policies, and some steel mills had plans to stop production for maintenance. The supply of seamless tubes in the market may decrease in the future, but the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change.

Market outlook

Due to strong cost support and the impact of coal mine emergencies, the market's pessimism had eased, driving upstream bullish sentiment. Tube manufacturers and traders had taken the opportunity to raise prices, and it is expected that seamless tube prices will rise but not fall next week. However, due to the strong off-season effect and weak demand performance, price exploration will be limited.

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