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SunSirs: Supply Was Tight, and Liquid Ammonia Prices Bottomed out and Rebounded
October 23 2023 15:27:20SunSirs(John)

Price trend

This week (10.16-20), the domestic liquid ammonia market prices had risen, and manufacturers' quotations had been pushing up since Monday. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the main production area in Shandong this week increased by as much as 6.54%. As of October 20th, the trading center had moved up the 300 RMB/ton range compared to the beginning of the week. As of October 20th, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region was between 3,600-3,800 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

From the supply side perspective, the increase in liquid ammonia was mainly due to the tight supply performance in the main production areas in the north, low inventory of enterprises, and the price increase supported by the reduction in production of devices. The northern region was mainly affected by the Beijing conference, and transportation was subject to certain restrictions, with most manufacturers experiencing a decrease in load. The manufacturer's quotation had been raised multiple times this week, with a cumulative increase of over 300 RMB/ton. In the short term, the operating rate of enterprises continued to decline, resulting in tight supply. There was a widespread phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. The dealer's offer naturally rose.

On the demand side, the downstream urea market was s table and rose, mainly boosted by the new round of bidding news from India and India, and export expectations have strengthened. This week's increase was in the range of 100-200 RMB/ton. From a terminal perspective, agricultural demand followed up in a timely manner, while industrial demand was mainly supported by rigid demand. However, there were not many new export orders, which may become a limiting factor for the rise of liquid ammonia in the later stage.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ liquid ammonia analysts believe that in the near future, there are expectations of recovery in the equipment of northern liquid ammonia enterprises, and downstream industrial demand is average. Supply and demand may change in the short term, and it is expected that liquid ammonia will be difficult to continue driving up the market.

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