Price trend

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, on the 17th, the average spot market price of nickel was 152,500 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.02% compared to the previous trading day. The overnight market's London nickel future fluctuated in a range, closing at 18,575 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton or 0.03%, while the Shanghai Nickel 11 contract fell 1,570 RMB/ton to 150,730 RMB/ton or 1.03%.

Analysis review

From a macro perspective, the Fed's stance was biased towards the dove faction, leading to a decline in the prices of the US dollar and US bonds. This change affected metal prices, including nickel prices. The continuous loose supply of pure nickel and weak terminal demand for secondary nickel had offset the positive impact of the US dollar's decline to some extent, leading to a decline in nickel prices.

In terms of supply, due to the continuous loose supply of pure nickel, market inventory continued to accumulate. This gradually returned the price of pure nickel to its cost pricing logic, which was determined based on production costs and market supply and demand. On the other hand, due to the cost inversion of the route for converting nickel iron to electrowinning nickel, the profit from converting nickel sulfate to nickel production had significantly narrowed, which to some extent supported the nickel price.

Market outlook

Overall, the trend of nickel prices was influenced by both macro factors and supply and demand patterns. Despite policy incentives and factors such as tight nickel mines in Indonesia, the long-term downward trend in nickel prices was still difficult to reverse due to issues such as sustained loose supply of pure nickel, weak terminal demand, and continuous inventory accumulation. Nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate widely.

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