Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic BDO market was in a weak position. From June 29th to July 6th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11,497 RMB/ton to 11,364 RMB/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 1.16%, with a month on month increase of 1.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.42%.

Analysis review

Although some equipment maintenance, load reduction, and agent replacement may release the maintenance news at the end of July, the supply side had a favorable inventory to support the supplier's market growth; But the demand side was in the traditional off-season, and most downstream industries were under cost pressure, which suppressed procurement enthusiasm. The pressure on supply and demand had increased, and holding manufacturers had shipping attitudes, resulting in a downward trend in the focus range of actual orders.

On the supply side, following the shutdown of Tianye and Hebi devices, Dongjing Phase II load reduction, Great Wall Energy replacement, Meike device maintenance, and Blue Mountain Tunhe also released the news of a major inspection at the end of July, increasing positive support on the supply side; Online bidding was trading at a relatively high level, and the supplier's intention to defend the price still existed. Short-term BDO supply is a positive factor.

On the cost side, raw materials for calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continued to be weaker. On July 6th, the benchmark price for calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 2,850.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.16% compared to the beginning of this month (2,883.33 RMB/ton). In terms of methanol, supply was still abundant, demand changes were limited, and costs may temporarily remain stable. The domestic methanol market was operating in a weak trend. On July 6th, the benchmark price of methanol for Shangshe was 2,137.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.95% compared to the beginning of this month (2,180.00 RMB/ton). Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol continued to be sluggish, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, the performance of terminal demand was not good, and the upward transmission of orders was not smooth, which suppressed the enthusiasm of downstream industries to start work. The main focus was on maintaining contracts for raw material procurement, with scattered spot orders following up and strong bargaining sentiment. Short-term BDO demand side is relatively negative.

Market outlook

BDO device maintenance and restart coexisted, but the overall market supply had slightly decreased, and the supply side had a certain advantage, supporting the supplier's strong market. There was no significant improvement in terminal demand, suppressing downstream procurement enthusiasm. BDO analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic BDO market may fluctuate and consolidate.

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