Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of imported potassium chloride in the domestic market fell slightly in June, and the price of potassium chloride fell from 2,825.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,775.00 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.77%.

On June 27, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 88.10 points, down 0.79 points from the previous day, down 49.54% from the cycle's highest point of 174.60 (2022-06-21), and up 51.24% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

Analysis review

From the supply side, the quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride dealers fell slightly this month: at the end of the month, potassium chloride dealers in Xiangyang Youdeshi quoted 2,900 RMB/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the potassium chloride dealer of Zibo Dehe offered 2,700 RMB/ton, which was 250 RMB/ton lower than that at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month in Badou, Anhui, potassium chloride dealers quoted 2,700 RMB/ton, compared with the beginning of the month, the quotation dropped by 50 RMB/ton. At the end of the month, Shandong Xinkaisheng offered 2,800 RMB/ton for potassium chloride distribution, compared with the beginning of the month, the quotation increased by 100 RMB/ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Saltlake at the end of the month was about 2,500 RMB/ton. At the end of the month, 62% of the port's white potassium chloride was around 2,400-2,500 RMB/ton, 60% of the port's red particles potassium chloride were around 2,800 RMB/ton, and 62% of the border trade's Russian white potassium chloride was around 2,250 RMB/ton, all of which showed a decrease. The port stock of potassium chloride was about 2.6-2.7 million tons.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate significantly decreased this month, from 8,180.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 7,760.00 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.13%. The price at the end of the month had decreased by 23.36% compared to the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate rose slightly this month, from 5,100.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 5,400.00 RMB/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.88%, and a year-on-year decrease of 29.30%. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride had ups and downs. The agricultural demand was weaker, the industrial demand was general, the market had entered the slack season, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for potassium chloride had weakened.

Market outlook

The market trend of potassium chloride in the first ten days of July may slightly fluctuate and fall, mainly finishing. The price of potassium chloride in Saltlake and Zangger was adjusted at a low level, mainly based on contracts. Downstream agricultural demand weakened, industrial demand was average, and procurement was mainly on demand. Supply exceeds demand, and the price of potassium chloride may fall in shock in the future.

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