According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of softwood pulp increased first and then decreased last week, while the price of hardwood pulp showed an upward trend. On January 19, 2024, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,792 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.07% compared to the average price of 5,796 RMB/ton on January 14. On January 19th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,066 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.32% compared to the average price on January 14th.
By observing market changes, it can be seen that last week's wood pulp prices have mainly fluctuated and consolidated, while pulp futures prices have remained in a range of fluctuations. The continued high import volume in the domestic market and slight accumulation of port inventory have driven the market downward, while the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea incident also brings upward risks of tightening spot liquidity. Last week, the sample inventory of mainstream domestic ports was 1.896 million tons, an increase of 8.4% (147,000 tons) compared to last week, showing a trend of accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks.
In terms of demand, downstream production has overall rebounded, but the continuous decline in finished paper prices and the narrowing of paper mill profits indicate that there is still little improvement in long-term demand. Recently, with the pre holiday restocking of raw paper manufacturers, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement has improved compared to the previous period, supporting the trend of pulp prices. However, the terminal performance remains lackluster, with sporadic demand for goods being the main focus. Large and medium-sized paper companies are under inventory pressure in the market.
In terms of futures, on January 19, 2024, the opening price of the SP2405 main contract for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,730 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,720 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,774 RMB/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 424,800 lots and the position was 187,923 lots.
According to analysts from SunSirs Wood Pulp, the current port inventory is at the median level for the year, and terminal performance is still lackluster, with sporadic demand for goods mainly. The market has low expectations for downstream restocking during the Spring Festival period, and the downstream market continues to be in a weak state. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will continue to fluctuate.
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