Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic polyester filament market stopped falling and rebounded in November. Mainstream polyester filament factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions had a positive intention to ship, and actual transactions haD discounts. As of the end of the month, the price of polyester POY (150D/48F) was between 7,350-7,650 RMB/ton, the price of polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) was between 8,750-9,100 RMB/ton, and the price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) was between 8,100-8,300 RMB/ton. The prices of raw materials had been adjusted weakly, but the support for downstream demand was still sufficient.
Analysis review
The supply of raw material PTA was sufficient, and with the restart of early maintenance equipment, the industry's operating load had increased to over 82%. In addition, the 1.25 million ton new production line of the 2.5 million ton/year PTA plant in Yisheng Hainan had been put into operation in November, and an additional 1.25 million ton/year production line was expected to be put into operation by the end of November. In the first 11 months of 2023, PTA increased production by 15 million tons, setting a historical annual expansion record and dragging down the PTA market. But with the improvement in terminal performance, it had to some extent buffered the downward pressure on PTA prices. As of November 29th, the average spot market price in East China was 5,675 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.41% from the beginning of the month.
From the perspective of downstream textile terminals, after the end of the "Double Eleven" shopping carnival, some domestic textile and clothing enterprises had achieved significant destocking effects, and there was a certain demand for restocking in the downstream. In addition, the sudden drop in temperature across the country, especially in many northern provinces, had further driven the growth of winter clothing demand. The shipment speed of winter fabrics and lining materials was still acceptable, and orders for spring and summer fabrics were sporadic, providing favorable support for short-term demand. As of the end of November, the downstream weaving and texturing operating rates still fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines remained above 75%, with no obvious signs of a decline.
Market outlook
Analysts from SunSirs believe that the market expects OPEC+, the oil producing countries, to extend and deepen production cuts, and international crude oil may experience strong fluctuations. The overall PTA market had restarted, with many new production capacity and planned maintenance capacity, and the supply of PTA goods will remain sufficient in the future. In addition, there are not many domestic and foreign trade orders at the terminal, and most of them are replenished on demand, with weak demand sustainability. Downstream buyers were cautious in chasing prices, and there is a possibility of polyester filament stockpiling. It is expected that in early December, polyester filament factories may focus on profit protection, with prices moderately increasing. However, there is a possibility of price decline as demand weakens.
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