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SunSirs: Energy, Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Rose after Bidding

November 29 2019 17:31:16     SunSirs (Selena)

  1. Price Trend

On November 28, after PetroChina's bidding for raw gas, domestic LNG stopped falling and went up, ushering in a new round of gains again. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of LNG on November 28 was 4,433.33 RMB/ton, 4,366.67 RMB/ton compared with the average price on the previous day (27 days), up 1.53%, down 2.08% compared with the same period last year. On November 28, the LNG commodity index was 109.27, up 1.64 points from yesterday, down 47.71% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 58.71% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

  1. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of November 21, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 4,450 RMB/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 4,350 RMB/ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. was 4,300 RMB/ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 4,500 RMB/ton, that of Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was 3,550 RMB/ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao was 4,200 RMB/ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan lvneng Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 4,500 RMB/ton. The LNG price of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. was 3,950 RMB/ ton, and each LNG plant adjusted the price according to itself.

Market analysis: on November 28, PetroChina western natural gas auctioned for LNG plant raw gas. This online auction put in 90 million cubic meters of resources, 30 million cubic meters less than the previous period. The transaction price of the whole market was 2.51 RMB/㎡ (i.e. the top price), and the estimated cost was 4,335 RMB /ton. In this bidding, the gas volume was reduced, the bidding price was higher, some manufacturers who did not have the gas source ere not robbed, and the cost problem might face the shutdown state, which further intensified the intense bidding process, causing the price of some LNG plants in the northwest and North China to go up. The receiving terminal was cautious, and the LNG station intended to follow up.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were four kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on November 28, 2019, among which the top 3 commodities were coke (3.09%), LNG (1.53%) and gasoline (0.42%). There were five commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were petroleum coke (- 1.26%), WTI crude oil (- 0.51%), Brent crude oil (- 0.33%). The average price of this day was 0.16%.

  1. Market Forecast

LNG analysts of SunSirs believe LNG market has been in a significant shock in recent years, and the ups and downs of each other happen from time to time. At present, with the lifting of pollution warning in many cities in the north, the coming of cold current, and a new round of bidding and other factors, the decline of domestic LNG has been suspended, and the rise is coming again. It is expected that the LNG price trend will be strong in the short term. However, due to various constraints such as intake, pipeline gas and terminal mental fatigue, LNG prices may be restrained from increasing significantly.

 

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