SunSirs: Energy, affected by Environmental Protection and Production Restriction, Domestic Coke Market Improves

1. Trend analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic coke market has recovered recently, but the market as a whole remains stable. at present, the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Shanghai are 1,830 RMB/ton and 1,900 RMB/ton respectively; in Xuzhou are 1,800 RMB/ton and 1,870 RMB/ton; in Weifang, Shandong are 1,750 RMB/ton and 1,800 RMB/ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province are 1,650 RMB/ton and 1,700 RMB/ton; the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province are 1,740 RMB/ton and 1,800 RMB/ton; in Shenyang, Liaoning Province are 1,770 RMB/ton and 1,830 RMB/ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province are 1,760 RMB/ton and 1,850 RMB/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei Province are 1,740 RMB/ton and 1,790 RMB/ton; in Tianjin are 1,750 RMB/ton and 1,850 RMB/ton. The mainstream prices of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan Province, Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou province and Ordos coke market are 1,980 RMB/ton, 2,220 RMB/ton and 1,400 RMB/ton respectively. The price of primary metallurgical coke in port trade is about 2,000 RMB/ton, of quasi-primary is about 1,900 RMB/ton, and of secondary is about 1,800 RMB/ton.

Product: after entering winter, affected by heating season and air pollution early warning and other factors, many places in North China began to implement production restriction measures. In addition, the recent security inspection caused by safety accidents led to a certain decline in the supply of coke spot. The industry recovered, and the intention of coke supporting price was strong. However, the procurement of downstream steel plants showed no obvious signs of increase, most of which were just needed and the coke inventory was high. Due to the impact of rising steel profits, the efforts of steel mills to suppress coke prices slowed down.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were four kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on November 25, 2019, among which the top 3 were DME (4.07%), methanol (1.51%) and LPG (0.86%). There were five kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with WTI crude oil (- 1.38%), Brent crude oil (- 0.91%) and diesel (- 0.45%) as the top 3 products.

1. Market Forecast

According to the coke analysts of SunSirs, the overall production of the domestic coke market is limited, the start-up of coke enterprises has declined and the inventory of coke enterprises has declined significantly, the delivery situation of coke enterprises has improved, and the market is bullish; the profit of downstream steel plants has increased, and the intention to reserve is good. The coke market is expected to be stable and positive in a short period of time.

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