SunSirs: Rebound in July, China Methanol Market Fell first and then Rose

In July, China domestic methanol market first fell and then rose, and the overall market atmosphere improved slightly. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the methanol market in eastern China was 2,520 RMB/ ton at the beginning of July, and the price was 2,597 RMB/ ton at the end of the month. The price rose by 3.06% in the month, with the maximum amplitude of 12.18%, up 0.46% year-on-year.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in July 2022, there were two kinds of commodities with month on month rise in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices, with methanol (phase) (3.06%) and LNG (2.46%) rising in the top two. A total of 11 commodities fell month on month, with a total of 7 commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 53.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were MTBE (-14.87%), petroleum coke (-9.19%) and WTI crude oil (-8.83%). The average rise and fall in July was -4.96%.

In July, the price of methanol industrial chain products rose and fell, with an upward and downward trend from raw materials to the downstream. The international crude oil market was strong, Brent was -10.63% month on month in July, with a year-on-year increase of +42.00%. Among downstream products, prices rose and fell in July. Among them, the price of glacial acetic acid fell the most, with a month on month decrease of -17.94% and a year-on-year decrease of -40.92%; The price of formaldehyde in Shandong increased the most, with a month on month increase of +5.28%.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 28, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $357.50-358.50 / ton, up $3.5 / ton. The closing price of Gulf methanol market in the United States is 113.50-114.00 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 384.50-385.00 euros / ton.

Crude oil is expected to rise in August, but coal prices may decline. At the same time, methanol supply is relatively abundant, and the demand side is expected to rise in a narrow range. SunSirs methanol analysts expect that China domestic methanol market will mainly recover in the short term.

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