SunSirs: Copper Prices Rose Slightly This Week (July 18-22)

Price trend

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 57,135 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.24% from 55,881.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.12%.

Analysis review

According to the weekly change chart of SunSirs, in the past three months, the price of copper has risen for 2 weeks and fell for 10 weeks. The price of copper has been falling incessantly recently and is now rebounding slightly.

Macro: The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2011, raising interest rates by 50 basis points to curb inflation. Stimulating the rise of the euro and the weakening of the dollar, at the same time as the Fed's interest rate hike is approaching, the negative digestion has basically been completed, and the sentiment has eased a lot. With the continuous recovery of US stocks, the market risk appetite has increased.

Fundamentals: The overall supply and demand in July continued to improve month-on-month, but were still slightly lower than the same period last year, and the strength of consumption recovery after the easing of the epidemic was weak. Under the influence of the resumption of production of Shandong refineries and the recovery of production after the centralized maintenance of domestic refineries, the supply of refined copper is expected to gradually increase, and the follow-up or continuous accumulation. However, domestic inventories are on the decline. Although the buying interest in the trade link is not good, the decline in inventories and the rising premiums verify that the current demand is still under repair.

Market outlook

However, it is difficult for domestic demand to rebound significantly, and the sustainability of the rebound is also limited. It is expected that copper prices will temporarily fluctuate at a low level.

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