SunSirs: Costs Went Down, Polyester Staple Fiber Prices Continued to Fall (July 4-8)

Price trend

This week (7.4-7.8)) the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a unilateral downward trend. According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was quoted at around 8,526 RMB/ton on July 8, down 2.10% from the beginning of the week and up 17.5% from the same period last year.

This week, staple fiber futures showed a volatile downward trend. The main contract of staple fiber PF futures closed at 7,676 RMB/ton on Friday, down 1.41% from last week's closing price. The settlement price is 7,676 RMB/ton. This week, domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 1.88% to close at 6,168 RMB/ton, while ethylene glycol futures rose 2.92% to close at 4,474 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

This week, the international crude oil price showed a volatile trend of falling. Concerns that a global recession could dampen fuel demand outweighed fears of supply disruptions, and oil prices extended losses this week. U.S. crude oil fell nearly 6% this week, closing at around 102 US dollars a barrel on Friday (as of 17:30 Beijing time).

This week, the tight PTA spot situation had eased, downstream demand was sluggish, and both upstream PX and crude oil had fallen, dragging down PTA prices.

This week, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded weakly after a continuous decline. Recently, the supply of ethylene glycol has shrunk due to continuous losses. Several units have announced maintenance or production conversion plans, and the supply and demand pattern has gradually eased.

This week, polyester staple fiber continued to break down after briefly stabilizing in the early stage. In addition to the fall in upstream crude oil and PTA prices and the weakening of cost support, supply expectations have also increased this month, and downstream spinning mills and weaving mills have traditionally started off in the off-season, and demand has weakened.

Market outlook

Under the expectation of a global economic recession, oil prices may continue to fall in the short term, and the cost-end support of polyester staple fiber will weaken. The United States is discussing the cancellation of additional tariffs on China, and downstream demand may be expected to recover. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will stabilize after a continuous decline. Pay attention to changes in raw material prices, adjustment of U.S. tariff policies, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the epidemic.

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