SunSirs: Aluminum Prices Fell in June, and Aluminum Supply Will Be Strong in the Third Quarter

Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on June 29 was 19,383.33 RMB/ton, a daily increase of 0.64%, compared with the market average price of 20,206.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (6.1), a decrease of 4.07%, and an increase of 3.10% compared with the average market price of 18,800 RMB/ton in the same period last year.

Taking the peak in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24,240 RMB/ton, and the recent deviation from the peak has dropped by 20.04%. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 18,693.33 RMB/ton, a recent increase of 3.82%.

Overall view of supply and demand

1. The progress of domestic aluminum ingot production capacity reduction and resumption of production

The progress of domestic aluminum ingot production reduction and resumption of production has reached 80%, with a total of 2.495 million tons of resumption production capacity. In terms of different regions, except for the suspension of accident enterprises, Yunnan has basically resumed production; more than 80% of Inner Mongolia and Henan have resumed production, 70% of Shanxi, and 40-50% of Guangxi and Guizhou.

1. 30% of new domestic production capacity is put into production

In terms of the production of new domestic production capacity, some projects in Yunnan have basically been put into production, and other projects are still in preparation for production; some of the production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to be fully put into production this year. On the whole, the production rate of new production capacity is about 30%, and it is expected that another 800,000 tons of production capacity will be put into production in the second half of the year.

Market outlook

From the perspective of supply and demand, it is expected that the new production capacity will be put into production one after another, and there is a possibility that the production capacity will be converted into production in the third quarter.

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