SunSirs: Down! Down! Down! Isobutyraldehyde Plummeted 42.58% in More Than 20 Days

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the market price of isobutyraldehyde rose sharply in the second quarter. In April and May, the market price of isobutyraldehyde rose from 13,566.67 RMB/ton on April 1 to 17,066.67 RMB/ton on May 31, up 3,500 RMB/ton, or 25.80%. Into June, the price of isobutyraldehyde began to plummet, falling again and again. The price of isobutyraldehyde fell from 17,066.67 RMB/ton on May 31 to 9,800.00 RMB/ton on June 23, down 7,266.67 RMB/ton, or 42.58%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 34.67% year-on-year. There was also a downtrend over the weekend.

On June 22, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 51.10, a decrease of 3.38 points from previous day, a decrease of 51.60% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 43.82% from the lowest point of 35.53 points on December 11, 2021. (Note: The cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to the present). Judging from the weekly column chart of isobutyraldehyde, the overall price of isobutyraldehyde rose in April and May, and the price rose the most in the first week of May, with an increase of 7.06%. The price of isobutyraldehyde continued to fall in June.

Analysis review

From the perspective of manufacturers' quotations, the prices of mainstream domestic manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde dropped sharply in June, and the inventory of manufacturers was average. Lihuayi's isobutyraldehyde was quoted at 10,000 RMB/ton at the end of the month, which was down 7,000 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month; Luxi Chemical’s isobutyraldehyde distributed by Shandong Zhenkun was quoted at 9,600 RMB/ton at the end of the month, which was down 6,400 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde quoted 9,800 RMB/ton at the end of the month, compared with the beginning of the month, the price dropped by 6,400 RMB/ton.

Upstream support was insufficient and downstream demand weakened

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains of isobutyraldehyde, the upstream propylene market of isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in the second quarter. The price of propylene rose from 8,200.80 RMB/ton in early April to 8,800.80 RMB/ton on May 7, an increase of 7.32%, and a year-on-year increase of 5.72% over the same period last year. Then the falling mode was started, and the price of propylene fell from 8,800.80 RMB/ton on May 7 to 7,938.25 RMB/ton on June 23, a decrease of 9.80%. Insufficient upstream cost support had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

Downstream neopentyl glycol fluctuated and fell in the second quarter. The price of neopentyl glycol fell from 17,733.33 RMB/ton in early April to 15,833.33 RMB/ton on June 23, a decrease of 10.71%. Among them, the monthly decline in June was 5.94%. The downstream situation fell sharply, and the downstream manufacturers' enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde weakened.

Market outlook

In late June, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate slightly and fall. Crude oil fell for a week, and upstream propylene prices fell slightly, with insufficient cost support. The weather is gradually turning warmer, the terminal industry of neopentyl glycol is gradually entering the off-season, the downstream factories are less motivated to purchase isobutyraldehyde, and the product trend is declining due to the contradiction between supply and demand. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of SunSirs believes that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate slightly and decline.

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