SunSirs: In Mid-July, the Domestic Market of Natural Rubber Was Mainly Volatile to Be Weak

Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs (100ppi.com), in mid-June (11-20), the mainstream situation of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in the East China market first continued to decline, and then continued to fluctuate to be weak in a continuous trend: On the 11th, the mainstream price of natural rubber in the domestic market was about 13,090 RMB/ton, and on the 20th, the mainstream price was 12,700 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.98%. Among them, the highest price of natural rubber in this ten days was 13,090 RMB/ton on the 11th, and the lowest point was 12,700 RMB/ton on the 20th.

Analysis review

On the macro side, on June 20, international crude oil futures prices rose. The settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was reported at 108.12 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.13 US dollars or 0.12%; the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at 114.13 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.01 US dollars or 0.89%. Oil prices rebounded slightly on Monday as the market gradually returned to rationality, with tight supply still prevailing, overshadowing the impact of slowing global economic growth.

Supply side: Supply in Southeast Asia increased. The domestic production area in Yunnan had normal rubber tapping, and the output increased. The output in Hainan had gradually increased, but it had not increased significantly, and the local price of thick latex continued to be suppressed. The price difference between Yunnan and Hainan after adding water had narrowed, and the price of natural rubber raw materials had generally weakened. In terms of inventory: the current import volume is not large, and the domestic inventory has been reduced slightly.

Demand side: Data shows that the operating rate of Chinese all-steel tire sample companies last week was 61.70%, an increase of 14.98% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.77%. Although the company started relatively well in mid-June, the number of orders was limited, the inventory of finished products was high, and the purchase of raw rubber did not improve significantly. Downstream automobile production and sales increased month-on-month, which would consume a certain amount of tire inventory, but it does not continue to be strong. The overall product enterprises were generally in operation, and the destocking of products may be driven, but the sustainability was still not optimistic.

Market outlook

The macro policy is improving, and the consumption policy is frequently issued, but there is still a certain time lag before it is accepted; The circulation conditions of goods have improved; the output of new rubber has increased, the import volume is small, and the spot inventory of natural rubber continues to be low; the inventory of finished tires is high, and the inventory is mainly consumed in the short term; the operating rate of enterprises is average, and the procurement of raw materials is limited. It is expected that with the continuous increase in production and sluggish downstream demand, it is more likely that natural rubber will fluctuate to be weak in the short term.

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