SunSirs: Non-Ferrous Spot Lead Dropped 1.86% (November 11-15)

1. Prices Trend

The Lead market (November 11-15) decreased slightly. The average price in the domestic market was 16,125RMB/t at the beginning of the week and 15,825RMB/t at the end of the week, decreasing 1.86%.

On Nov 15, the Lead Commodity Index was 96.31, 0.11 higher than that of Nov 14, 28.13% lower than the peak of 134.01 in the cycle (Nov 29, 2016), and 29.05% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 (Mar 19, 2015). (Cycle: Sep 1, 2011 to date)

2. Market Analysis

Domestic market: From Nov 11 to 15, the prices of PBD fell all the way, and the prices were all below the average. This week, PBD inventory has been reduced by 2，900 tons. In terms of PB, PBM1912 was converted into 2001. The mainstream priceS fluctuated between 15,660-16,100. During this period, prices continued to decline after falling below the key position of 16,000. The prices fell to the vicinity of 15,700. Although the prices tried to rush to a high of 16,100, prices lacked the support of good news. In the spot market, the mainstream prices of spot lead were 15,750-16,150RMB/t, which was dragged down by the futures market, and the spot market continued to decline. The market turnover situation was better than last week, but the refinery's enthusiasm for shipment was not high. On Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead general brands had a discount of 10RMB/t to a premium of 10RMB/t for the 1912 contract. Market brands of lead are concentrated in Shanghai Jinsha, Nanfang lead, Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Jinli, etc., and most of them are long transactions. This week, the market performance of recycled lead was strong, and the price difference with spot lead was further reduced to about 300RMB/t. Downstream battery enterprises still mainly purchase recycled lead, but most of them have purchased on demand.

Major domestic events:

A large number of waste lead-acid batteries have entered the black market with huge environmental pollution problems: the official website of the Ministry of industry and information technology released the guide for construction and operation of new energy vehicle power battery recycling service network (hereinafter referred to as the ‘guide’) on July 7. The guide clearly requires that new energy vehicle manufacturers should establish collection type recycling service network in the administrative areas (at least prefecture level) where new energy vehicles are sold.

Quanzhou will establish a waste battery collection and transfer project, which will recycle 50,000 tons of waste batteries every year. Recently, Quanzhou ecological environment bureau announced the EIA report form of the battery centralized collection and transfer technical transformation project of Quanzhou Kaiying power appliance Co., Ltd., which will be showed in public until November 20, 2019. At the beginning of the plant's construction in September 2000, Kaiying had a production scale of 4 million small plates. In 2005, it completed the technical transformation project of 4 million small plates to 4 million large plates. In June 2012, it completed the operation of the battery assembly line. In 2014, after the lead workshop was rebuilt and expanded in different places, the new and old plant areas of Kaiying company were managed independently, and the environmental protection facilities were operated independently.

Non-ferrous industry: This week's data in Europe and the United States were lower than expectation, the U.S. dollar index was high and volatile, and basic metals fell across the board under the pressure of short return.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

The US data is expected to be moderate, and the US dollar is expected to fall back at a high level. The domestic metal market will attract long-term delivery of spot goods. Under the condition of loose capital, all of which can support to repair the sharp fell of base metal, and some metal items that can be supported by the fundamentals are expected to recover. It is expected that the lead prices will mainly swing in the range of 15,700-16,000.

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