SunSirs: Domestic refined petroleum coke continued to rise in March

Price data

According to the bulk list data of SunSirs, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refiners in March was 4251.25 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 4925.50 RMB/ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 674.25 RMB/ton during the month and a monthly increase of 15.86%.

On March 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 383.10, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 472.73% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in March, the price of refined petroleum coke continued to rise sharply. The low output of the two refineries and the impact of the Olympic Games on the environmental protection have resulted in the superposition of the low output of the two refineries and the reduction of the inventory of crude oil, which has a significant impact on the international refineries.

Upstream: the rise of international crude oil in March was mainly due to the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Under the background of the continuous escalation of sanctions against Russia by the United States and Europe, the expectation of supply interruption in the future continued to strengthen, and the oil price operated strongly. On March 7, Brent's oil price soared to $139, approaching the highest level before the 2008 financial crisis. At present, the war is not even, and rounds of negotiations have come down, but the progress is slow. It is difficult to remove the risk of oil price fluctuation above $100.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose in March; Metal silicon market rose; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated. As of March 31, the price was 22640.00RMB/ton. In early March, affected by environmental factors, downstream carbon Enterprises Limited production and the demand for petroleum coke weakened; In the latter ten days, carbon enterprises resumed work, and the demand for petroleum coke increased.

Future forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business society predicts that the international crude oil price is high, and the price cost of local petroleum coke is supported. With the end of the Paralympic Games and the two sessions, carbon enterprises have started work one after another, and the demand for petroleum coke is good, driving the rise of coke price. At present, the refinery has no pressure on inventory, positive shipment and good market demand for petroleum coke. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may remain stable in the near future, and some enterprises fluctuate slightly.

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