SunSirs: Styrene (rising with crude oil price)

[market resumption]

Futures market: at night,styrene jumped up with crude oil. EB05 closed at 9977RMB/ton,up 239 RMB/ton, or 2.45%.

Spot market: enterprise quotation and spot price rise, and market transaction is still weak. Jiangsu spot 9795 / 9835RMB/ton.

[important information]

(1) Cost side: the cost shock is strong. There are still variables in the geopolitical conflict, the tight situation of crude oil supply is difficult to reverse in a short time, and the oil price rebounds; The maintenance of pure benzene plant increased, the supply was expected to shrink, and the price fluctuated with the cost; The maintenance of ethylene plant reduces the load, and the price is relatively strong.

(2) Supply side: the maintenance device is restarted one after another. Shandong Huaxing 80000 tons stopped on March 15 and is expected to restart in mid May, Zhejiang Petrochemical 600000 tons stopped for maintenance on March 7 for about 20 days, Maoming Petrochemical 100000 tons stopped on February 28 and is expected to restart in early May, Shandong Yuhuang 200000 tons stopped and restarted around February 27, and Shanghai Secco 650000 tons stopped for maintenance on March 15 for one month. As of March 17, the weekly operating rate was 76.29% (+ 2.94%).

(3) Demand side: public health events affect transportation, and the downstream construction is generally declining, with weak demand. As of March 17, the operating rate of PS was 76.45% (- 2.17%), that of EPS was 48.69% (- 6.58%), and that of ABS was 95.74% (+ 2.26%).

(4) Inventory side: as of March 23, the inventory of East China port was 136800 (- 8200) tons, the transportation was limited, the arrival was reduced, the export continued to ship, and the port continued to go to warehouse.

(5) Production profit: the loss of non integrated unit is about 700RMB/ton.

[trading strategy]

Styrene maintenance units have been restarted one after another, and new units are expected to be put into operation in April. The terminal demand recovers slowly, the downstream construction starts to fall, and the demand is weak.

The price trend of styrene is still dominated by cost. Under the background of strong crude oil shock, it is suggested to maintain the bull mentality

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.