SunSirs: Coke Market Rebounded due to the Impact of Heating Limit Plan

Futures: Coke rebounded in a volatile market on Tuesday, closing at 1,718.5 (up 19.5), reducing more than 63,000 daily positions and reducing trading volume. Top 20 capital flows: both sides of the long and short positions are mainly decentralized, positions are greatly reduced, and concentration is weakened. El Nino affects the deviation of meteorological conditions in autumn and winter, which is not conducive to the diffusion of air pollutants. In the Yangtze River Delta and Fenwei plain, the air pollution control plan was issued, and the price of screw steel rose sharply, which led to the rebound of coke price. Recently, the weather warning was lifted and the construction began to pick up. Last week, the stock of coke port decreased slightly, but the whole coke port was still at a high level. The supply was relatively sufficient, and the upper pressure was still large. The coke may rebound in a short time, but the overall fluctuation was weak.

Spot: today's coke market is in weak and stable operation, with average turnover. Quotation for quasi first grade metallurgical coke: 1,730 RMB/ ton for Rizhao Port, 1,600 RMB/ ton for Linfen and 1,810 RMB/ ton for Tangshan. In terms of coke enterprises, after the second round of increase and decrease, the price is temporarily stable, the profit of coke enterprises is close to the balance of profit and loss, the overall operation of coke enterprises in the main production area is kept at a high level, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, the traders take less goods, and the sales pressure is still not relieved. In terms of steel mills, the raw material inventory of steel mills is at many middle and high levels, and the expectation of weakening the overall demand near the off-season is slowing down. Some steel mills are still pessimistic about the later trend of coke, and the short-term coke market is expected to be weak and stable.

Brief strategy: Coke 2001 or weak shock, pay attention to market expectations, fund sentiment, inventory changes and environmental impact, and prevent centralized increase and decrease of funds.

Strategic analysis: at present, the global economy is under great pressure, and the trade consultation has made periodic progress; the government has strengthened macro-control, strictly controlled real estate to increase infrastructure and protect the economy, and the monetary easing has been reduced twice in the year. In recent days, the early warning of polluted weather in many places has been lifted. The output of finished products has remained high and the supply pressure is heavy. The strong demand has gradually led to the decline of building materials inventory. The Fenwei plain and the Yangtze River Delta have issued air pollution control plans in autumn and winter, and the thread has been pulled up. The high inventory of coke is difficult to alleviate in a short period of time. This year, El Nino affects the deviation of meteorological conditions in autumn and winter, which is not conducive to the diffusion of air pollutants. The impact of production restriction and tightening on steel plants is greater than that of coking plants, and the raw materials will be weaker than the finished products.

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