SunSirs: The Panic Rise of Raw Materials Drove the Rise of Polyester Staple Fiber (March 3)

Price trend

Spot price: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market quotation on March 3 was 7,876 RMB/ton, up 1.18% from the previous trading day and down 0.80% year-on-year.

Futures market: On March 3, the futures price of the main PF contract closed at 8,174, up 4.98% from yesterday's settlement price, and the settlement price was 8,028; the trading volume was 220,686 lots; the trading volume was 220,686 lots; the open interest was 123,018, the open position increased by 5,674, and the basis was -298. The main futures of domestic polyester staple fiber raw materials closed sharply on the 3rd, the main PTA rose 6.55%, and the main ethylene glycol rose 6.39%.

Analysis review

The war between Russia and Ukraine escalated, and sanctions from Europe and the United States led to a sharp drop in Russia’s crude oil supply. OPEC+ production increased slowly. The IEA’s plan to release 60 million barrels of strategic reserves also failed to ease the market’s concerns about oil supply shortages. There was an atmosphere of panic in the crude oil spot market, and the main US oil and Brent oil contracts both broke through the 110 US dollars/barrel mark overnight. On the 3rd, the international oil price continued to soar, and the domestic SC crude oil rose by the daily limit. After the main contract of SC crude oil refreshed a new high since October 2018 in the intraday on Monday, it continued to hit a new listing high.

Oil prices rose sharply, and the cost of PTA rose. At present, the processing fee of PTA is at a low level. Many manufacturers planned to reduce production and load. The supply side of PTA was expected to shrink, and the supply and demand pattern had improved; Oil prices rose sharply, and the cost of ethylene glycol rose, but due to oversupply, the port inventory of ethylene glycol was still high; Costs rose, staple fiber processing fees rose, processing profits rebounded, and production and sales picked up; in terms of terminal textiles, the resumption of work after the Spring Festival was slow, and it will take time to improve, but the traditional demand in ‘gold March and silver April ’is still expected.

Market outlook

In the short term, the international crude oil price is still easy to rise and difficult to fall due to factors such as geopolitics in Russia and Ukraine, and the cost-side support of staple fiber is strong. It is expected that staple fiber will continue to fluctuate upwards.

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