SunSirs: U.S. Inflation Data Spurs Risk Aversion, Precious Metals Prices in China Rise

Precious metal spot price

​On February 14, the average price of the silver market in early trading was 4882.67 yuan/kg, a daily decrease of 2.53%. Compared with the pre-holiday (January 31) spot market price, the average morning price was 4793 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.87%.

​On February 14, the spot market price of gold was 374.21 yuan/gram, a daily increase of 1.63%, compared with the spot market price before the holiday (January 31) of 373.05 yuan/gram, an increase of 1.94%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metals gold and silver in the past 1 year

From a long-term perspective, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, and the trend is basically the same. Silver prices rose sharply today.

Inflation data sparks risk aversion

Overnight, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds fell sharply after U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations again. Five jumped to -0.421%, the highest level since June 2020.

Domestic monetary policy news

The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan today, and the winning rate was 2.1%, unchanged from the previous time. Another 20 billion yuan of 7-day period and 200 billion yuan of 14-day period of reverse repurchase expired.

Market outlook

Inflation data stimulated investors' hedging and hedging sentiment. As a defensive asset to hedge against high inflation, the price of precious metal silver rose. At present, the actual negative interest rate is still good for precious metals. The market outlook is waiting to see the news of interest rate hike. This week, we will focus on the following data news.

Tuesday: 15:00 UK December three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK January unemployment rate, UK January unemployment benefits; 18:00 Germany February ZEW economic sentiment index, the fourth quarter GDP annual rate revision in the euro area, The euro zone's February ZEW economic sentiment index, the euro zone's quarterly employment rate after seasonal adjustment in the fourth quarter, and the euro zone's seasonally adjusted trade account in December; 21:30 US January PPI monthly rate, US February New York Fed manufacturing index;

Wednesday: 05:30 API crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to February 11; 09:30 China January CPI annual rate; 15:00 UK January CPI monthly rate, UK January retail price index monthly rate; 18:00 Euro zone December industrial output monthly rate; 21:30 Canada January CPI monthly rate, Canada December wholesale sales monthly rate, U.S. January retail sales monthly rate, U.S. January import price index monthly rate; 22:15 U.S. January industrial rate Output monthly rate; 23:00 US February NAHB housing market index, US December commercial inventory monthly rate; 23:30 US to February 11 week EIA crude oil inventories, US to February 11 week EIA strategic oil reserve stock;

Thursday: 08:00 Australia January seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; 15:00 Switzerland January trade account; 21:30 US to February 12 week initial jobless claims, US January housing starts total annualized, US The total number of construction permits in January, the US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in February; 23:30 US to February 11 week EIA natural gas inventories;

Friday: 07:30 Japan's January core CPI annual rate; 14:30 France's fourth-quarter ILO unemployment rate; 15:00 UK January seasonally adjusted monthly retail sales rate; 15:45 France January CPI monthly rate; 17:00 Eurozone December seasonally adjusted current account; 21:30 Canada December retail sales m/m; 23:00 U.S. January existing home sales annualized, U.S. January Conference Board leading indicator m/m; Saturday: 02:00 U.S. Total oil rigs for the week to February 18.

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