SunSirs: Coal Chemical Futures Weakened, PTA Prices Fell within a Narrow Range

In the night trading on October 19, futures related to the coal chemical industry generally fell, and PTA followed the decline. Today (October 20), the current price of PTA fell slightly. The average domestic spot market price was 5390 yuan/ton, down 2.45% yuan/ton from the previous day, up 56.58% year-on-year, and the main futures market closed at 2201, 5440 settled 5410, down 90, a decrease of 1.63%.

PTA devices are gradually restarted, and the spot supply is sufficient. The overall operating load of domestic PTA devices has increased to more than 77%. Among them, Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 million tons plant was shut down on October 9 and restarted on October 20. Yisheng Dalian’s 2.5 million ton plant was overhauled on October 8, and is scheduled to restart around October 22, which is still awaiting attention.

Crude oil fluctuates at a high level, and the cost supports PTA. On October 19, the settlement price of the main US WTI crude oil futures contract was reported at US$82.44/barrel, an increase of US$0.75 or 0.92%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at US$85.08/barrel, an increase of US$0.75 or 0.89%. Global supply is tight, and fuel demand growth in winter is expected to heat up and continue to benefit oil prices.

The raw material PTA market is weak, and the downstream polyester market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The quotations of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are temporarily stable, of which polyester POY yuan/ton is 8850-9100 yuan/ton. "Double Eleven" e-commerce clothing orders and winter home textile orders rebounded month-on-month, but they were still not good year-on-year, terminal demand was weak, and polyester operating load remained stable at around 79%.

Although the cost-side support still exists, some large-scale PTA installations are restarting or plan to restart, and PTA supply pressure is increasing. At the same time, the overall chemical futures show a weak atmosphere, and the short-term PTA market will decline in a narrow range.

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