SunSirs: Production of New Products is Basically over, will Chinese Forsythia Continue to Rise?

1. Price trend

The price of Forsythia suspensa has been running steadily at a high level this week. At present, the price of forsythia suspensa green boiled in Henan is around 105-110 yuan/kg, which is basically the same as last week.

At present, the new production of Qingqiao is about to end. The price of fresh fruit in Lingchuan, Shanxi is 38.2 yuan/kg, and the price of fresh fruit in Anze is about 38 yuan. The pharmacopoeia standard asking price is 116-120 yuan.

Bozhou market: Forsythia, due to the high price, recently merchants have weakened their purchasing power, and the market has returned to calm. At present, the most expensive boiled goods in Bozhou market are asking for about 100 yuan, and the quotation for qualified volatile oil is about 120 yuan.

Anguo market: Forsythia, the new end of production, the output of new products is not large, and the inventory is weak, merchants are optimistic about the market outlook, the recent price of the production area has risen, the market performance is not obvious, the price of boiled forsythia is 100-110 Between yuan, the qualified goods price is 120 yuan, and it is expected that the market outlook will still be full of variables.

Lingchuan County, Jincheng City, Shanxi: Forsythia local estate has recently entered the final stage. The product has more attention to merchants and their purchasing attitudes are more active. The current loading transaction price is 108-110 yuan, and the local inventory is currently available. Sales attitude is also more positive.

Xixia County, Henan: Forsythia is available in the producing area. Due to the high price, the number of merchants requesting the goods has decreased recently, the supply of goods has moved slowly, and the price has stabilized. The current price of boiled goods is 97-98 yuan.

The price of Qingqiao has risen steadily since its new production, especially the price of fresh fruit has increased significantly. The closing price of fresh fruit at the early stage of production is about 16 yuan/kg, and by early August it has risen to 34-36 yuan; the price of dry products has also changed from new production. The initial 65-66 yuan (boiled) rose to around 110 yuan.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Forsythia reduced production

The main production areas of Forsythia can be divided into four areas: Shanxi, Henan, Hubei, and Shaanxi. Shanxi's output accounts for more than 60% of the national output, and the production areas are relatively concentrated. The flowering period of Forsythia is in April, and the new production is in July. If the weather is "fallen cold" during the flowering period, it is easy to cause a decrease in production.

From 2017 to 2021, Qingqiao has cut production for 5 consecutive years. Of course, the reduction in production is serious. The total output of Qingqiao in normal years can reach 9,000-10,000 tons, but since 2017, due to disasters, the total output has been greatly reduced.

It is understood that there are about 200 tons in Lushi County, Sanmenxia, ​​Henan, plus 100 tons of old goods, totaling about 300 tons of goods, and 1,000 tons of dry goods can be produced in a high-yield year. Luanchuan produces about 170 tons, with a high output of 500-600 tons per year. Most of the fresh fruits in Linzhou are sold in other places, and the local processed dry goods are only 60-70 tons. The high yield can produce 2500 tons of fresh fruits per year, and the output this year is about 500 tons. In Song County, this year's dry product is only 50 tons, and the annual output can be 300-400 tons.

Shanxi Lingchuan produces about 300 tons, with a high yield of more than 1,000 tons per year. Local fresh fruits are mostly sold in other places, and local processed dry goods are few. The high yield can produce 3,000 tons of fresh fruit annually, and this year is about 1,000 tons. Anze has a high yield of 3,000 tons of fresh fruits per year, and about 1,000 tons this year. The local fresh fruits are mostly sold in other places, and the local processed dry products are about 100 tons. Beiduwu Village, Xinjiang County, Shanxi Province, is a forsythia processing base. This year, it processed 500-600 tons of dry goods, plus 200 tons of old goods, totaling about 800 tons. At present, the local supply of goods has gone out of 80%. Tunliu County, Shanxi Province, this year's production of dry products is about 300 tons, with a high yield of 1,000 tons per year. Shangluo, Shaanxi, will produce about 100 tons of dry products this year, with a high yield of 300 tons per year.

In addition to the output of other producing areas, the total output of Qingqiao in 2021 will be no more than 3,500 tons, some people say 2,500-3,000 tons.

Forsythia market demand elasticity

Forsythia suspense is also very elastic. The normal annual consumption of Qingqiao nationwide is 6000-7000 tons, but it often changes with the epidemic and price fluctuations. In 2003, when SARS was prevalent, the amount of green jelly was increased by 1,000 tons than usual; in 2010, during the historically high price period, the amount of green jelly was reduced to 4,000 tons due to the large amount of old products from manufacturers and the use of 3,500 tons of forsythia leaves. In 2015-2019, the consumption rose to 7500-8000 tons.

In 2020, the new crown epidemic broke out suddenly. In this battle, traditional Chinese medicine played an important role. Forsythia has the effects of clearing heat and detoxifying, dispelling knots and reducing swelling, leading to an increase in its demand. This accidental event carried out a large amount of inventory. Consumption.

Then, someone questioned it. Since the annual consumption of Qingqiao is about 7,000 tons, from 2017 to 2021, the total output in the past few years is not enough for the market demand of the year. Why are there so many old goods before new production every year? In fact, the problem is not difficult to answer.

Because the inventory left by Qingqiao before 2017 was too large, it made up for the shortage of production in recent years. In addition, thousands of tons of forsythia leaves are purchased by extraction plants every year, and forsythin is extracted to replace the usage of forsythia suspensa, and some are mixed with forsythia suspensa leaves. This year, the price of forsythia leaf is 8-10 yuan/kg, and 6 catties of leaf extract is equivalent to 1 catty of forsythia extract.

Meets the pharmacopoeia and less qualified supply

The 2020 edition of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia revised the quality standard of Forsythia suspensa, adding the test items for the volatile oil of Forsythia suspensa for the first time.

Inspection: the impurity shall not exceed 3% for the green curling; the old curling shall not exceed 9%. The moisture must not exceed 10.0%. The total ash content must not exceed 4.0%.

Extract: Determined according to the cold immersion method under the determination of alcohol-soluble extract (General Rule 2201), using 65% ethanol as a solvent, the green curl should not be less than 30.0%; the old curl should not be less than 16.0%.

Content determination: volatile oil: Qingqiao contains volatile oil not less than 2.0%. Forsythin: Forsythin shall not be less than 0.15%. Forsythin A: Qingqiao contains no less than 3.5% forsythin A; Laoqiao contains no less than 0.25% forsythin A.

The implementation of the new version of the Pharmacopoeia in 2020 has caused most of the old and rushed new products to fail to meet the standard requirements. Although there are goods available in the market near the new production period, the products that meet the full inspection of the 2020 version of the Pharmacopoeia are almost exhausted.

At this stage, Forsythia is producing products that meet the 2020 edition of the Pharmacopoeia in the new period. Although the supply of resources is relatively short, there are still goods available. If the demand is driven in the later period, the market will still have room for growth.

3. Market outlook

In general, the production of Forsythia is about to end, and there is still nearly a year before the production of new forsythia next year. In accordance with the normal market demand, the supply and demand supply in 2021 has been significantly tight. As the market actually digests, forsythia may have a higher price.

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