Soybean Meal is under Pressure after the Surge, Short-Term Adjustment Risks Need to be Prevented

Futures: Soybean meal 2109 fell back under pressure on Monday, closing at 3655 (down 39), a total of 47,000 lots lightened, and trading volume continued to drop. The top 20 capital flows: individual long positions sharply reduce their positions, the amount of positions plummeted, and the degree of concentration drops; short positions are dispersed and lighten up, and the amount of positions decreases, and the degree of concentration is fine-tuned. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a report last week that the planting area and stocks of U.S. soybeans were significantly lower than expected, and the low levels of U.S. soybeans and soybean meal increased significantly. The domestic soybean meal trend is stronger than the external market, and the profit of pig farming bottomed out, which is good for soybean meal demand. After the soybean meal market rose sharply, some of the funds were profitable. The early trading opened lower and the long sentiment was released. The short-term or continued shocks and fluctuations were taken to prevent adjustments. Risks, pay attention to the trend of external disks and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: The current macro easing supports the low level of agricultural products, but policy adjustments affect market expectations. External disks, supply and demand, and market sentiment factors have a comprehensive impact on the market. In terms of supply, the United States has recently increased precipitation, but the good rate is still low year-on-year. The high yield of Brazilian soybeans has suppressed the rise of US soybeans. In 2021, China's imports of US soybeans may reach a new high. On the demand side, the imported soybean crushing profit was negative. Domestic hog prices bottomed out after continuous sharp declines, but the upward pressure is still heavy. In the long run, the hog cycle will continue to be repaired but there are still twists and turns. The overall center of gravity of the soybean meal market shifted upwards and then tended to fluctuate widely. pattern. Operational reference: the market has fallen to an important support zone, and you can choose the opportunity to lay out long-term and long-term orders. After a sharp increase, you can reduce your position or hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2109 may continue to fluctuate in the short term to prevent adjustment risks. Short-term operation: close the position and wait and see. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3570-3600 area, you can consider trying more. If the market rises near and above 3700, you can consider reducing the long and closing the long. Band operation: hold 5% more capital positions or fall back to the 3500-3550 area. The layout of the band is more than one, and the overshoot near and above 3700 can be considered to reduce more and flatten more. Key short-term positions: 3630, 3680.

Market news: The USDA released a final report on the area last week: the US soybean planting area was 87.55 million acres, which was lower than the expected 88.955 million acres; the soybean stocks of the season on June 1 were 766781 million bushels, which was lower than the market estimate of 787 million. Bushels. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: In May, the number of reproductive sows increased month-on-month for 20 consecutive months, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year, reaching 98.4% at the end of 2017. The number of live pigs increased simultaneously, with a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, reaching 97.6% at the end of 2017. Informa released a report predicting that the US soybean planting area in 2021 will be 89.065 million acres, higher than the previous forecast of 88.485 million acres, and also higher than the US Department of Agriculture's planned planting area of ​​87.6 million acres in March.

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