SunSirs: Weak Costs and Demand, there are Downside Risks in the Polyester Industry Chain

On June 29, 2021, the list of bulk commodity prices rose and fell. There were 3 products in the chemical fiber sector that increased month-on-month. The top 3 products were polyester staple fiber (0.78%), polyester POY (0.15%), and polyester DTY (0.10%). ). There is 1 kind of commodity that dropped from the previous month, and the product that dropped is PTA (-1.12%).

Crude oil rises and falls, which is bad for the PTA market

On June 29, the main force of PTA futures 2109 closed at 5044 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton, or 2.51%. The spot market followed the decline, with an average market price of RMB 5,100/ton, down 1.12% from the previous day's price and up 40.87% year-on-year. Crude oil has risen and fallen, which is bad for the market mentality. In terms of equipment, Ningbo Yisheng 650,000 tons/year will be permanently shut down on June 29, and the current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 84%. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the news of PTA's new capacity test run and the trend of crude oil.

Demand cautiously wait and see the risk of polyester filament deposit and fall

The market price of polyester filament rebounded slightly by 50-200 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of polyester POY (150D/48F) in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7100-7450 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) was 8500-9000 yuan. /Ton, polyester FDY (150D/96F) is quoted at RMB 7500-7900/ton. However, the trading atmosphere of the factories has slowed down. The production and sales of mainstream factories are mostly around 30%-50%, and some better factories can still do the same. The downstream prices of raw materials squeeze the profits of grey fabrics, coupled with the thin orders, the main reason for purchasing is cautious and wait-and-see, and the superimposed cost side has fallen. In the short-term, it is necessary to be wary of the risk of polyester filament prices falling.

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