Soybean Oil Market Continues to Rebound, Pay Attention to the Upper Pressure Level

Futures: Soybean oil 2109 continued its rebound on Wednesday, closing at 8166 (up 128), a total of more than 22,000 hands were lightened, and the trading volume continued to drop. The top 20 fund flows: long positions are dispersed to increase and decrease positions, holdings slightly decrease, and concentration is fine-tuned; short positions are mainly dispersed and lightened, holdings are greatly reduced, and concentration is weakened. The Fed will gradually withdraw from the loose policy, strengthen domestic price stabilization supervision, and tighten macroeconomics, and risk assets will be under pressure as a whole. At present, palm oil is in a period of increasing stocks, domestic soybean oil stocks continue to rise, and the total stocks of the three major oils and fats exceed the level of the same period last year. U.S. agricultural products fell sharply, and U.S. soybean oil rebounded after a continuous decline. Domestic soybean oil fluctuated with the external market. Intraday short positions lightened up the market. Short-term or continued shock and rebound fluctuations. Pay attention to the initiative of key funds, pay attention to external market trends and market expectations.

Strategic analysis: The current international macroeconomic environment is expected to be tightened, and domestic high-level regulation and control plans to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, maintain stable economic operation, policy adjustments put pressure on commodities, foreign markets, supply and demand and market sentiment factors have a comprehensive impact on the market. On the supply side, US soybean stocks are expected to be higher than expected, US soybean oil crushing is expected to improve in the future, and domestic soybean arrivals continue to increase. This year, China’s imports of US soybeans may hit a new high, but the continued drought in North America will support low prices to some extent . On the demand side, soybean oil transactions and inventories rebounded month-on-month, and demand seasonally weakened. Expected increases in palm oil production are on the rise, the Indian epidemic restricts oil demand, and soybean oil as a whole tends to fluctuate widely. Operational reference: You can choose an opportunity to place empty orders after a sharp rise and over rise, and you can choose an opportunity to place more orders if the market drops significantly to an important support area.

Market strategy: Soybean oil 2109 may continue to fluctuate and rebound in the short term, pay attention to the initiative of key funds. Short-term operation: hold 5% more capital positions, drop below 8140 and close the position. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 7950-7050 area, you can consider trying more. If the market is under pressure in the 8250-8350 area, you can consider flattening more and reducing more. Band operation: wait and see, if the 7900-8000 area stabilizes, you can consider the wet storage to try more, if the market is under pressure in the 8300-8450 area, you can consider the wet storage to test the empty. Short-term key positions: 8100, 8250.

Market news: USDA announced the June supply and demand report. The soybean crush of US soybeans in 2020/2021 has been reduced. Therefore, the beginning inventory of 2021/2022 increased from 120 million to 135 million. The rest of the new crop has not changed, and the ending inventory is 1.55. Billion po. USDA: As of May 16, the US 21/22 soybean planting progress was 61%, the fastest record in the same period in history and 60% higher than market expectations. USDA: The US soybean crush in April was lower than expected. In April this year, the US soybean crush was 5.0956 million tons (170 million bushels), a decrease of 9.8 percentage points from March and a decrease of 7.4% from April last year. As of the end of April, US soybean oil inventories fell from 1.771 billion pounds in the previous month to 1.702 billion pounds, lower than expected, and 2.111 billion pounds in the same period last year. Brazil's Ministry of Commerce and Trade: As of May 17, Brazil's average daily soybean exports in May was 880,000 tons, an increase of 25% from the same period last year, but slowed down from the first week of May, when the average export volume on Sunday exceeded 900,000 tons. China Cereals and Oils Business Network: Domestic soybean oil stocks were 834,200 tons last weekend, a weekly increase of 47,500 tons, and 915,400 tons in the same period last year.

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