Increases and Decreases in Funds and Adjustments in Warehouses, Soybean Oil Market Rebounds under Pressure

Futures: Soybean oil 2109 rebounded under pressure on Tuesday, closing at 8038 (up 118), with a total of more than 3 thousand Masukura lots, and the trading volume continued to drop. The top 20 capital flows: long positions individually dispersed and lightened positions, the amount of positions decreased, and concentration was fine-tuned; short positions were individually concentrated to increase positions, and the amount of positions increased, and the degree of concentration increased slightly. The Fed will gradually withdraw from the loose policy, strengthen domestic price stabilization supervision, and tighten macroeconomics, and risk assets will be under pressure as a whole. At present, palm oil is in a period of increasing stocks, domestic soybean oil stocks continue to rise, and the total stocks of the three major oils and fats exceed the level of the same period last year. U.S. agricultural products fell sharply, and U.S. soybean oil rebounded after a continuous drop, and market expectations shifted. Domestic soybean oil followed the outer market, and the bulls in the night trading took the initiative to increase the market after the increase in selling pressure, short-term or shock washing volatility, pay attention to the initiative of key funds, pay attention to the trend of the outer market and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: The current international macroeconomic environment is expected to be tightened, and domestic high-level regulation and control plans to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, maintain stable economic operation, policy adjustments put pressure on commodities, foreign markets, supply and demand, and market sentiment factors have a comprehensive impact on the market. On the supply side, US soybean stocks are expected to be higher than expected, US soybean oil crushing is expected to improve in the future, domestic soybean arrivals continue to increase, and China's imports of US soybeans this year may reach a new high. On the demand side, soybean oil transactions and inventories rebounded month-on-month, and demand seasonally weakened. Expected increases in palm oil production are on the rise, the Indian epidemic restricts oil demand, and soybean oil as a whole tends to fluctuate widely. Operational reference: You can choose an opportunity to place empty orders after a sharp rise and over rise, and you can choose an opportunity to place more orders if the market drops significantly to an important support area.

Market strategy: Soybean Oil 2109 may be volatile in the short-term or oscillating, pay attention to the initiative of key funds. Short-term operation: close the position and wait and see. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 7850-7950 area, consider trying more. If the market goes up against the pressure in the 8150-8300 area, consider flattening more and reducing more. Band operation: close the position and wait and see. If the 7800-7950 area stabilizes, you can consider wet storage to try more. If the market rises above the pressure in the 8200-8350 area, you can consider wet storage to test short. Short-term key positions: 7950, 8100.

Market news: USDA announced the June supply and demand report. The soybean crush of US soybeans in 2020/2021 has been reduced. Therefore, the beginning inventory of 2021/2022 increased from 120 million to 135 million. The rest of the new crop has not changed, and the ending inventory is 1.55. Billion po. USDA: As of May 16, the US 21/22 soybean planting progress was 61%, the fastest record in the same period in history and 60% higher than market expectations. USDA: The US soybean crush in April was lower than expected. In April this year, the US soybean crush was 5.0956 million tons (170 million bushels), a decrease of 9.8 percentage points from March and a decrease of 7.4% from April last year. As of the end of April, US soybean oil inventories fell from 1.771 billion pounds in the previous month to 1.702 billion pounds, lower than expected, and 2.111 billion pounds in the same period last year. Brazil's Ministry of Commerce and Trade: As of May 17, Brazil's average daily soybean exports in May was 880,000 tons, an increase of 25% from the same period last year, but slowed down from the first week of May, when the average export volume on Sunday exceeded 900,000 tons. China Cereals and Oils Business Network: Domestic soybean oil stocks were 834,200 tons last weekend, a weekly increase of 47,500 tons, and 915,400 tons in the same period last year.

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