Shanghai Tin Adjusts within a Narrow Range, Long and Short Tend to be Cautious

Internal and external trends: LME tin fell slightly on Thursday. As of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month price of LME was US$31,125/ton, down 0.46% daily. Shanghai Tin’s main 2107 contract was adjusted within a narrow range, the highest within the day was 208,380 yuan/ton, the lowest was 206520 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 207,150 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the closing price of the previous trading day; the trading volume was 42,206 lots, an increase of 49358 lots; open positions 28380 hands, 1271 hands less per day. The basis is 1350 yuan/ton; the monthly price difference of Shanghai Tin 2107-2108 is 730 yuan/ton.

Market focus: (1) The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.5% for the first time in a month, setting a new one-month low. (2) At 20:30 on June 10th, Beijing time, the United States will announce May CPI data. The market expects that the core CPI annual rate in May will not increase by 3.5%, which will be the largest growth rate in 28 years. (3) The United States exported 25.67 tons of unprocessed tin in April, down from 31.14 tons in March; and imported 264.42 tons, down from 440.06 tons in March.

Spot analysis: On June 10, spot 1# tin was quoted at 207,500-209,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 208,500 yuan/ton, and a daily drop of 500 yuan/ton. Changjiang Nonferrous Metals reported that the holdings of the goods are limited, the spot circulation is scarce, and there is no obvious downstream market entry, the pre-holiday stocking expectations have been disappointed, the market supply and demand are still stalemate, and the actual transaction is relatively limited.

Warehouse receipt inventory: On Thursday, Shanghai tin warehouse receipts totaled 4,530 tons, a daily reduction of 59 tons; on June 9, LME tin inventory was 1915 tons, a daily reduction of 5 tons.

Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Tin's main 2107 contract are 17,663 hands, daily reduction of 737 hands, short positions of 19091 hands, daily reduction of 850 hands, net short positions of 1428 hands, and daily reduction of 113 hands. Long and short are reduced, and headroom is reduced.

Market research and judgment: The US inflation data in May will be released soon. The market is generally expected to perform strongly. The Fed's early tightening policy has revived, and the US dollar index has rebounded from a low level. Yunnan's electricity and production restrictions continue to affect the output of tin smelters. Due to the local dry weather, the pressure on water and electricity supply is greater. At present, the Shanghai-London ratio has remained low for a long time, and the net export of refined tin has increased significantly, which is good for the digestion of domestic inventories. However, overseas inventories have continued to rebound recently. However, the current tin price is at a historical high, and the downstream fear of heights is strong, and there is resistance above the tin price. Technically, the focus of the main Shanghai tin contracts has shifted upwards, and there is a tendency to be cautious about shrinking volumes and lightening positions. Operationally, the 205000-209000 range sells high and buys low, with a stop loss of 1500 points each. Up, sell high and buy low in the 205000-209000 range, and stop loss by 1500 points each.

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