Funds Increase Significantly, Soybean Meal Market Stabilizes and Strengthens

Futures: Soybean meal 2109 fluctuated up on Thursday, closing at 3,604 (up 37), with a total of more than 38,000 Masukura lots and an increase in trading volume. The top 20 capital flows: long positions increase and decrease positions sharply, and concentration increases; short positions increase and decrease positions individually, and positions increase greatly, and concentration is fine-tuned. The supervisory authority paid close attention to the price increase of raw materials, and five departments including the National Development and Reform Commission made an appointment to remind key commodity companies that commodity fluctuations were differentiated. The weekly crop growth report released by USDA shows that the planting area of ​​US soybeans was lower than expected that week, and the US soybean meal fell sharply and fluctuated at a low level. The sell-off of live pigs caused pig prices in many places to hit new lows during the year, and live pig futures continued to plummet; domestic soybean meal was long in the market. Take the initiative to increase the position, reduce short positions at key positions, and continue strong fluctuations in the short-term. Pay attention to the opportunity to step back on the support level and do more opportunities, and pay attention to the trend of the external market and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: The current macro easing supports the low level of agricultural products, but policy adjustments affect market expectations. External disks, supply and demand, and market sentiment factors have a comprehensive impact on the market. In the short term, the high yield of Brazilian soybeans has accelerated its entry into the market to suppress the rebound of US soybeans. The report of the week showed that the planting area was lower than expected. The overall supply and demand balance of US soybeans is likely to remain tight. China's imports of US soybeans may reach a new high in 2021. On the demand side, the price of live pigs dropped sharply, hitting a new low during the year, and replenishment may be slower than expected. Soybean meal stocks seasonally declined, and spot prices were high. In the long run, the large cycle of pig breeding will be restored, which will stimulate the long-term demand for soybean meal, and the overall market will maintain a slow bullish pattern. . Operational reference: the market has fallen to an important support zone, and you can choose the opportunity to lay out long-term and long-term orders. After a sharp increase, you can reduce your position or hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2109 may continue strong volatility in the short-term, pay attention to the opportunity to step back on the support level and do more. Short-term operation: hold more than 5% of the capital position, drop below 3590 and close the position. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3530-3570 area, you can consider trying more. If the market rises near 3650 and above, you can consider reducing more and closing more. Swing operation: continue to hold 10% more fund positions at the low level or fall back to the 3500-3550 area with more orders in the middle of the layout, and the high price area of ​​3700-3800 in the previous period can be considered to reduce the long and flat the more. Key short-term positions: 3580, 3640.

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