SunSirs: Polysilicon Material Shortage is Difficult to Alleviate, Price is Still in The Upward Cycle

According to the monitoring of a business news agency, This week (5.17-21) the domestic polysilicon market price continues to rise, a polysilicon primary material weekly increase of 2.89%, so far the price range is 85,000-105,000 RMB/ton.

By the end of this week, the polysilicon manufacturers were mainly in stable operation. Two major polysilicon manufacturers in Xinjiang had their polysilicon equipment overhauled, and one company in Inner Mongolia had reduced its production load, which affected part of the output. As a result, the supply of polysilicon was relatively tight in May, and this week has not eased. In the case of material shortage sentiment continues to heat up, the price rises naturally, the price of single crystal rises more strongly, and the price of long-term orders is locked, but the price of loose orders is generally high, further pushing up the expectation of silicon material rise. The price of domestic products is generally close to the 100000 marks. The price of imported polysilicon continues to rise this week. The average transaction price is over  23 USD/kg, and there are scattered offers to 24 USD/kg.

On May 14, Longji offered 4.39 RMB per chip for G1 and 4.49 RMB per chip for M6. On May 20, after Longji's price increase, Zhonghuan raised its price again. Among 170 thickness silicon chips, G1 (158.75mm) offered 4.7 RMB per chip, up 0.44 RMB or 10% from May 10; M6 (166mm) quoted 4.85 RMB/piece, up 0.405 RMB, or 9.1%. The price of silicon wafers has been rising repeatedly, which has also brought support to silicon materials.

However, from the terminal point of view, as the prices of silicon materials and wafers in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry continue to rise, the downstream battery manufacturers are in the dilemma of shrinking profits and even losing money, and the downstream battery prices are forced to rise, but the price rise is faced with the price without market and the slowdown of demand, In addition, it was reported on May 15 that India launched an anti-dumping investigation on photovoltaic modules produced in China and other regions, which may affect later export orders, and some overseas orders have been delayed or canceled.

The polysilicon analysts of the SunSirs believe that the silicon material manufacturers are still insufficient in some maintenance work, and it is difficult to alleviate the shortage of materials in the market in the middle and late ten days. The supply side will support the high price of silicon materials. However, the surge of silicon materials and wafers upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain will affect the demand for terminal modules. At present, some overseas orders have been canceled or delayed, and the pressure on the demand side may be increasing, which may suppress the upward pace of silicon materials to a certain extent.

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