SunSirs: Poor Demand, China's Rare Earth Industry Prices Continue to Fall

In mid-to-early May, the domestic rare earth market price index continued to fall. The domestic price of praseodymium and neodymium-based rare earths dropped sharply, and the price of heavy rare earths continued to fall. The domestic rare earth market was no longer good. According to the rare earth sector index of the business community, the rare earth index on May 18 It is 499 points, which is a decrease of 50.10% from the highest point in the cycle of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and an increase of 84.13% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 till now).

Since May, domestic rare earth prices have continued to decline. Recently, the prices of mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have continued to fall, and the rare earth market has been declining. Specific to the product:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, neodymium praseodymium oxide, neodymium praseodymium alloy, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium have continued to decline. As of May 19, the price of neodymium oxide in the domestic rare earth is The price of neodymium metal was RMB 627,500/ton, down 8.73% from the price at the beginning of the month; the price of neodymium praseodymium oxide was RMB 492,500/ton, down by 9.55% from the price at the beginning of the month; The price of neodymium alloy was 605,000 yuan/ton, down 8.33% from the beginning of the month; the price of praseodymium oxide was 517,500 yuan/ton, down 5.48% from the beginning of the month; the price of metal praseodymium was 665,000 yuan/ton, down 5.67% from the beginning of the month , The domestic light rare earth market trend has declined.

Recently, the rare earth market has been declining. Some companies have reported that the overall transaction situation is not good. The downstream permanent magnet manufacturers are not actively purchasing. However, the early manufacturers are actively preparing for stocks and the on-site inventory increases. As a result, the downstream enthusiasm for restocking is generally not high. The price of mainstream rare earth products Both have declined. Sales of new energy vehicles have slowed down, and the impact on the rare earth industry has cooled somewhat. The main rare earth materials of high-performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving inverter air conditioners, traditional automobiles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to set a single-month historical record of sales. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the national automobile industry continued to maintain a good development trend in April. The production and sales of automobiles were 2.234 million and 2.252 million respectively, down 9.3% and 10.8% from the previous month, and up 6.3% and 8.6% year-on-year; new The overall performance of energy vehicle production and sales is still better than that of the industry, with monthly production and sales remaining at more than 200,000 vehicles. Downstream on-demand procurement is the main focus, the market price of light rare earths continues to fall, and the market price of heavy rare earths continues to fall.

Domestic dysprosium prices have fallen sharply. As of the 19th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.315 million yuan/ton, which was 14.73% lower than the price at the beginning of the month; the price of dysprosium alloy was 2.295 million yuan/ton, which had fallen by 14.84% since May. The price of dysprosium metal It was 3.175 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.97% in May; domestic terbium prices fell sharply, domestic terbium oxide prices were 6.3 million yuan/ton, and metal terbium prices were 8.05 million yuan/ton. There are few transactions in the domestic rare earth market. The upper, middle and lower reaches of the market are mainly wait-and-see. Traders tend to purchase at low prices. The price of the heavy rare earth market has been declining. However, the political situation in Myanmar is unstable and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is second only to China. One of the producing areas of the United States. The Myanmar side has a greater impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the source of imported goods has been greatly reduced. The supply of the heavy rare earth market on the market is average, but the downstream conflicts are more serious, and the market price trend has dropped sharply.

The recent "Notice on the Implementation of Industrial Energy Conservation Supervision Work in 2021" emphasizes the comprehensive investigation of key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, petrochemical chemicals, building materials and other key industries, and launches special monitoring of the implementation of mandatory unit product energy consumption quota standards, which is finally realized During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, energy conservation supervision of key industries and enterprises will be fully covered. Industry insiders believe that this reflects that the government is strengthening the control of the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the market for rare earth products has been objective, but downstream businesses have significantly reduced prices for purchases, which has led to continued declines in market prices.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total control indicators will increase significantly, which is related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of Natural Resources has issued the 2021 total rare earth mining total control indicators, and the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO) in 2021 , The same below) The total mining control index is 84,000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly heavy rare earth) rare earth minerals and 72510 tons of rock and mineral (light) rare earth minerals. The first batch of tungsten concentrates (65% tungsten trioxide content, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63,000 tons, of which 46,890 tons are the main mining index and 16,110 tons are the comprehensive utilization index. In 2021, we will continue to control the total amount of rare earth and tungsten ore mining. The national policy is favorable, but the demand for entry is not good, the accumulation phenomenon is serious, and the trend of some products in the rare earth market has fallen sharply.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power, and inverter air conditioners downstream of rare earths, the demand is average, but the domestic rare earth supply has started normally. In addition, the recent poor transactions on the market and the inactive procurement. SunSirs analysts predict the future market price of rare earths The market price of light rare earths may continue to fall in the short term.

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