SunSirs: China BR Market Continued to Decline (April 19-23)

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic BR market continued to decline during the week (4.19-4.23). The price was 12,660 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week and 12,360 RMB/ ton at the end of the week, with an overall decline of 2.37%.

Last week (4.19-4.23), the domestic BR market declined, and the ex-factory price of BR of individual manufacturers decreased. According to the monitoring of business society, as of April 23, the ex-warehouse price of Daqing BR of PetroChina Northeast was 12,500 RMB/ ton; that of PetroChina Northwest was reduced 300 RMB/ ton; that of in Dushanzi was increased by 12,250 RMB/ ton, and the price of BR in Northwest warehouse was increased.

The supply side is mainly stable. According to SunSirs, the BR units in Maoming and Yangzi continued to shut down. The 150,000 ton/ year BR units in Zhongshan and Yanshan started to shut down for about 40 days in early April, and the units in Jinzhou and Dushanzi were in normal operation.

Raw material prices fell slightly, and the cost side was still relatively short. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of April 23, the price of butadiene was 6,637 RMB/ ton, down 0.88% from 6,696 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week.

Since the end of February, the price of natural rubber has been falling all the way. Considering the cost, the downstream tire enterprises are more likely to purchase natural rubber, and the demand for BR is under pressure. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of April 23, the domestic natural rubber price was 13,437 RMB/ ton, 17.50% lower than the highest point of 16,287 RMB/ ton at the end of February, and 5.39% higher than the lowest point of 12,750 RMB/ ton since April.

SunSirs analysts believe that the prices of natural rubber and butadiene are lower and have a strong negative effect on BR, but the price of natural rubber rebounded last week. If natural rubber stabilizes in the later stage, it is expected that the price of BR will stop falling and stabilize in the short term; if natural rubber price rebound is weak, BR will continue to be weak in China.

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