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SunSirs: Supply Exceeds Demand Still, LNG Prices Fell About 7% In a Row

April 25 2021 13:22:15     SunSirs (HU)

1. Price movements

According to the data monitored by the SunSirs: On April 23, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 3083.33 RMB/ton, down 6.94%% compared with the beginning of the week, down 15.53%, and up 2.78% compared with the same period last year.

2. Analysis of Influencing Factors

This week, the domestic liquefied natural gas market continued to decline, with a drop rate of 6.94% within the week. The liquid price in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and other places fell broadly. Near the end of the week, Shanxi, Henan, and other places pushed up slightly, the market showed a mixed situation, but the overall trend was still downward, the liquid price was mostly around 3000 RMB/ton. The off-season market demand is limited, the downstream stock increase before the holiday, but the boost is insufficient, approaching the May Day holiday, logistics may be limited, the liquid factory continues to reduce the price of storage operation, profit shrinking serious, production loss, traders operating space is not large, the bearish attitude of the industry is strong. The feed gas dropped to 1.88 RMB/square, reduce the pressure of liquid factory price, but the domestic supply is adequate, demand for the limited cases, low-priced imports gas continue to compete for the domestic market, has certain pressure liquid factory shipment, part of the low price of liquid for stop-loss point of view, and the imported gas rebound was driven fluid surrounding the factory prices rise, but it is difficult to form obvious turning point, the market is still weak.

On April 23, the domestic liquefied natural gas market continued to decline, slowing down, Inner Mongolia 3,000-3200 RMB/ton, Shaanxi 3,050-3200 RMB/ton, Shanxi 3,150-3250 RMB/ton, Ningxia 3,100-3190 EMB/ton, Henan 3,350-3500 RMB/ton, Hebei area 3,100-3,300 RMB/ton.

Region

Specifications

Quotation (RMB/ton)

Date

Inner Mongolia

Liquefied natural gas

3000-3200

On April 23

Shaanxi

Liquefied natural gas

3050-3200

On April 23

Shanxi

Liquefied natural gas

3150-3250

On April 23

Ningxia

Liquefied natural gas

3100-3190

On April 23

Hebei

Liquefied natural gas

3100-3300

On April 23

Henan

Liquefied natural gas

3350-3500

On April 23

Downstream products were mixed:

Methanol, on April 23, the methanol reference price is 2510.00, compared with April 1 (2377.50), rose 5.57%, Shandong Luzhong area of the methanol market mainstream talks fell to 2360-2380 RMB/ton spot delivery. Shandong methanol Lubei market reference price dropped to 2380-2390 RMB/ton near the spot sent. Methanol market in the southern region of Shandong negotiated price to 2380-2400 RMB/ton of factory spot exchange. Linyi local goods to negotiate the price to 2370-2390 RMB/ton to the spot exchange, logistics goods offer price is not available. Downstream cargo is limited, the atmosphere in general.

Urea, On April 23, the Shandong area urea market rose, the urea reference price is 2133.33, compared with the beginning of the week rose 1.56%, the upstream liquid ammonia market has a rising trend Aftermarket, the cost support is better. Demand-side: The agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer, plastic plate factory started a small increase in load, mostly based on the market. Supply-side: At present, urea enterprise equipment maintenance, supply end tightening. The operating rate of urea enterprises is about 70%, which has declined to some extent, and the daily output has dropped below 150,000 tons. In the future, urea supply is slightly insufficient, but the demand is rising. Short term urea market is expected to rise slightly.

Dichloromethane, On April 23, the methane chloride market in Shandong region, the methane chloride market is temporarily stable, the manufacturer's quotation is basically stable, The factory offer of dichloromethane mainstream is about 3400-3470 RMB/ton, and the ex-factory price of dichloromethane mainstream is about 3940-4100 RMB/ton. The shipment of dichloromethane is smooth, and the enquiry of dichloromethane is slightly reduced. At present, the pressure on the supply side is not big, but the performance of cost and demand is weak. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will be weak in the later stage.

3. Future forecast

According to SunSirs LNG analyst: At present, the domestic supply is sufficient and the off-season market demand is limited, low-price imported gas continues to compete for the domestic market, and pre-festival liquid plants continue to reduce the price of storage operation, prices continue to fall, some areas out of a stop-loss mentality, and the rebound of the surrounding imported gas, strong willingness to support the market, but mixed with the good and the bad, It is estimated that there is no obvious inflection point in the liquefied natural gas market, and it is still dominated by low volatility.

 

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