SunSirs: Thermal Coal Prices Rebounded to Around 778 RMB a Tonne in April After a Brief Drop

1. Price movements

According to the SunSirs monitoring, At the beginning of the month, the average port price of thermal coal remained at 752 RMB / ton. On April 19, the average port price of thermal coal remained at 778.75 RMB / ton, with a price increase of 3.56%. In addition, the price of thermal coal dropped from 752 RMB / ton on April 1st to 731.25 RMB / ton on April 13th, down 2.76. The price of thermal coal rebounded from April 13th to 778.75 RMB / ton on April 19th, up by 6.5%.

2. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Producing area, Ordos recent sales situation is good, customer transport enthusiasm is higher, coal prices rose 20-30 RMB / ton or so. Most coal washing plants in Inner Mongolia have gradually resumed production, but due to the impact of the epidemic, it is still difficult to import, raw coal is in short supply, and the overall production enthusiasm of washing is not high. Recently affected by the increase of safety and environmental inspection in the producing area, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production, and the thermal coal supply side has contracted. Recently, coal safety accidents occur frequently. On the premise of ensuring safety and production, the release of coal increment becomes more difficult.

Downstream power plants: Power plants appear off-season not light of the strong scene. At this stage, the power plant inventory declined slightly, daily consumption was slightly higher than the same period, the inventory declined. Data show that as of April 16, the national thermal coal inventory of 55 ports is 56.52663 million tons, 1.7087 million tons less than last week. Daqin line maintenance impact, the daily average volume of Daqin line in about 1 million tons, Daqin line maintenance brought down the amount of adjustment. In addition, affected by the mining accident, the seller has a strong bullish mood, the willingness to replenish inventory and the acceptance of high price are higher than before, and the overall port market becomes stronger.

Macroscopic: On April 16, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China produced 340.76 million tons of raw coal in March, down 0.2% year on year, up 9.4% compared with March 2019, with a two-year average increase of 4.6%, with a daily average output of 10.99 million tons. Imports of coal reached 27.33 million tons, down 1.8 percent year-on-year. In the first quarter, China produced 970.56 million tons of raw coal, up 16.0% year on year, up 15.4% over the first quarter of 2019, and up 7.4% on average in the two years. Imports of coal were 68.46 million tons, down 28.5 percent year-on-year.

SunSirs analysts said: According to SunSirs analysts, At the present stage, the overall supply of thermal coal from the producing area is contracting, downstream power plants have a good demand for thermal coal due to their inventory, and the summer season is coming, the overall thermal coal still has room to rise, specifically to see the downstream market demand.

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