SunSirs: China PVC Market is Rising again in Peak Season

According to the data monitored by SunSirs (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), the mainstream average price of PVC in China on April 9 was 8,905 RMB/ ton, up 1.49% compared with the beginning of the week (May 5) and 57.17% compared with the same period last year.

After the Qingming holiday, the PVC market rose again, and the futures price fluctuated higher, which led to the price rise in the spot market. The daily price increase was more in the range of 50-300 RMB/ ton, and the prices in various places generally increased, but the rise did not continue. The price callback was near the weekend, and the range was around 50-150 RMB/ ton. The market showed a trend of rising first and then declining. The rise in PVC prices is mainly due to the rising market. With the arrival of the traditional peak season, the social inventory continues to move down, indicating that the downstream demand has increased. Secondly, the spring maintenance is started, and the inventory pressure of PVC manufacturers is not big, which actively pushes up. The positive factors pushed up the PVC market last week. However, the downstream receiving capacity remained to be discussed. The low acceptance of high price PVC and the recent decline in the price of raw material calcium carbide restricted the rapid rise of PVC. Therefore, after the rise of PVC, there was a slight correction. At present, some enterprises have entered the state of maintenance, and good signals have been injected into the market. At the same time, the operating rate of downstream pipes, profiles and other products industry has increased to a certain extent, and the demand side has gradually improved. On the whole, there is no big contradiction between supply and demand side, and the price of PVC fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

In terms of spot, the main quotation range of PVC5 calcium carbide in China is around 8,700-9,000 RMB/ ton. The price range of PVC5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 8,700-8,850 RMB/ ton; that of in Changzhou is 8,700-8,850 RMB/ ton; that of in Guangzhou is 8,800-9,000 RMB/ ton; the market quotation fluctuates in a narrow range.

In terms of futures, the futures prices have fallen back and fluctuated sharply, driving the spot trend. On April 9, V2150 contract opened at 8,860 RMB/ ton, the highest price was 8,870 RMB/ ton, the lowest price was 8,700 RMB/ ton, and the closing price was 8,735 RMB/ ton, down 1.47%. The trading volume was 326,300 and the position was 234,400.

SunSirs PVC analysts believe that in April, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, downstream demand has increased to a certain extent, and the support force is acceptable. Meanwhile, the export is still good, which supports the steady rise of PVC price. However, due to the fall of futures shock, the decline of raw material price and the blocking of high price PVC transaction, the spot market will be callback. It is expected that PVC price will be slightly reduced in the short term in China, but the market sentiment will be boosted by the expectation of peak season, and there is still an expectation of rising in the future.

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