SunSirs: Chinese White Granulated Sugar Stocks still Need to be Consumed Last Week, and Prices have Fallen

Last week, the average price of first-level sugar was 5,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of first-level sugar was 5496 yuan/ton on weekends. The price dropped by 0.06% and the price dropped by 6.94% compared to the same period last year.

Market analysis

Sugar:

At present, the total national inventory is still increasing, but the northern beet sugar mills have been squeezed, and the turning point of the inventory is now; Guangxi ushered in the peak of squeezing in March, Guangdong has already squeezed in advance, and Yunnan will have a small number of sugar mills in March. Squeezed, the increase in inventory tends to decrease in the later period.

Guangxi sugar stocks are under pressure. As of the end of January, Guangxi had produced 4,127,800 tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 20,200 tons; sold 1,470,600 tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 543,400 tons; the production-sales ratio was 35.63%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.91 percentage points; month-end inventory was 2,57,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 52.32 Million tons. Among them, 632,700 tons of sugar were sold in January, a year-on-year decrease of 123,600 tons. In addition, as of the end of January, Guangxi's third-party inventory (including the delivery warehouse) increased by 700,000 tons.

The global sugar supply gap in the 20/21 crushing season is expected to be raised from 910,000 tons to 1.43 million tons, and the inventory consumption ratio will drop to 44.78%, which is lower than the 46.38% and 47% of the 19/20 and 18/19 crushing seasons. The International Sugar Organization ISO raised the supply gap to 4.8 million tons, higher than the previously expected 3.5 million tons. In addition, India's container tensions restrained exports, and the slow production in Thailand and Central America led to continued tight international trade flows in the first quarter. South Brazil's delayed start of squeezing and busy ports may make it difficult to alleviate the tension in trade flows at the beginning of the second quarter.

Late prediction

Short-term inventory pressure still exists, which will suppress prices. However, after reaching the peak of inventory in March-April, inventory is facing an inflection point as demand increases, and there is still support for sugar prices in the medium term.

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