SunSirs: Fear of Epidemic Situation in Europe, Crude Oil Price Plunges Again

Since last Thursday's plunge in oil prices, oil prices fell sharply again on March 23, with WTI crude oil down more than 6%, mainly due to the upgrading of epidemic prevention and control measures in many European countries and the slow progress of vaccine promotion, which cast a shadow on the prospects of economic recovery. On top of that, crude oil inventories jumped last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). In addition, at the hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, Yellen hinted that the corporate tax would be raised, and the US stock market dived in the end of the day.

On Tuesday, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $57.76/ barrel, down $3.80/ barrel, or 6.17%. Brent crude oil futures main contract settlement price was $60.86/ barrel, down $3.68/ barrel, or 5.70%.

The number of new infections in many European countries has risen again, and the major European economies have re-implemented the blockade measures. Among them, Germany announced to extend the blockade period. With the resurgence of the epidemic, vaccine supply and vaccination process in Europe are stagnant. It is reported that the EU started the new crown vaccination in December last year, but the vaccination progress is far lower than that of the UK, the United States, Israel and other countries.

SunSirs crude oil analysts believe that the recent decline in oil prices is mainly due to the recurrence of epidemic situation in Europe, but the market generally believes that this is only a short-term impact. With the acceleration of vaccination progress in the later stage, the process of global economic recovery can still be expected. The overall positive effect of oil price on the demand side can also be predicted. In addition, OPEC's production control policy still provides the main support for the supply side. During the implementation period before the end of April, the crude oil supply side has little change. In the medium and long term, the overall rising logic of crude oil price remains unchanged.

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