SunSirs: International Crude Oil Plummeted, Naphtha Continues to Decline (March 15-19)

As of March 19, the mainstream ex-factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 6,392.50 RMB/ ton, down 0.35% compared with 6,415.00 RMB/ ton on March 15. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 6,300 RMB/ ton. On March 19, the naphtha commodity index was 78.90, unchanged from the previous day, down 23.11% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 86.79% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)

Last week, the price of naphtha from local refineries continued to fall, and the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. The refineries were mainly destocked, and the transaction was general.

Upstream: according to SunSirs, oil prices have been falling for five consecutive trading days. At the macro level, due to the release of water from the Federal Reserve and central banks, inflation expectations continued to rise, US bond yields rose, and the prices of risky assets such as stock markets and commodities were suppressed. In addition, the pace of global economic recovery was once again dragged down by the epidemic, this time mainly from the European region. The European vaccination process was blocked, which led to the expectation of a slowdown in economic recovery and the suppression of oil prices. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to two-week lows one after another. WTI closed below US $60. WTI crude oil hit the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, toluene continued to decline last week, with toluene price at 5,877.50 RMB/ ton on March 15, and that of March 19 at 5,690.00 RMB/ ton, down 3.19%. Last week, the domestic mixed xylene continued to decline, with the price of mixed xylene at 5,500 RMB/ ton on March 15, and that of March 19 at 5,380 RMB/ ton, down 2.18%. In terms of PX market, PX price trend last week was stable, and by the end of the week, the factory price of p-xylene in China was 6,700 RMB/ ton, which was flat with the price of 6,700 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week, up 21.82% year on year.

SunSirs energy analysts believe that the naphtha market has been affected by the sharp drop of international crude oil recently, and the price has continued to decline. The market has a strong wait-and-see mood. As well as the recent decline in the price of Sinopec's outward refined oil, it is expected that the price of China refined hydrogenated naphtha will decline this week.

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