SunSirs: Egg Prices Continue To Rise Due To Substitution

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of eggs at the beginning of this week was RMB 10.48 yuan / kg, and the price of eggs at the end of this week was RMB 11.12 yuan / kg, up 6.11%.

Product: the price of pork has increased substantially, which has led to the continuous impact of the increase in the price of chicken and egg. At present, the price of egg and chicken is at a seasonal historical high since 2012. The price of egg and chicken in the off-season of August is strong, which reflects the market's optimistic demand for the future. In addition, the price of pig has stepped into the rising cycle, which is more favorable to eliminate the consumption of chicken and broiler compared with that of egg. Egg is a good price. The source of cheap animal protein keeps rising.

In the fourth quarter of this year, changes in the consumer end are expected to dominate the market. The preparation period of egg supply is 3-4 months, and the number of laying hens is basically determined in the fourth quarter. According to the data of early stage feeding, the increase rate of production capacity does not reach the level that can effectively restrain the price.

Industrial chain: at present, the spillover effect of high price of pork continues to support the egg price. On the supply side, the number of laying hens on hand in September was 152 million, an increase of 1.91% on a month on month basis. According to the situation of filling up the stock of early chickens, it is estimated that the growth rate of laying hens on hand in October will slow down, and it will decrease in November. Since this year, the egg production rate affected by related diseases is lower than that in previous years, releasing a certain supply pressure. On the demand side, at present, the number of sows that can be bred is still relatively low. It will take 5-6 months for piglets to reach commercial pigs. The production capacity of pigs still needs to be restored. The higher price of pigs may be maintained until the first half of next year to continue to support the market price of eggs.

Forecast: live pig stocks may be low again, which is good for egg consumption. In the third quarter, the price of layer seedlings will rise to the highest price in the same period instead of falling. It is expected that the price of eggs will continue to rise in the future.

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