SunSirs: The Price of Caustic Soda Was Raised Due to the Positive Stimulation of Overhaul

Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda increased slightly. On March 1, the average price of the Shandong market was about 457.5 RMB/ton, and on March 15, the average price of the Shandong market was 482.5 RMB/ton, and the price increased by 5.46%.

On March 14, the caustic soda commodity index was 67.99, which was the same as previous day. It was 67.13% lower than the cycle high of 206.87 points (2017-11-14), and 4.42% higher than the lowest point of 65.11 on October 09, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

Analysis review

The reason for the increase in the price of caustic soda in this round was that the manufacturers concentrated on maintenance and the supply side was slightly tightened. At present, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly. The mainstream ex-factory price of 32% caustic soda is now 390-480 RMB/ton. Recently, the number of maintenance equipment has increased, and the downstream purchases have increased. It is expected that caustic soda may have a small increase in the future. The price of caustic soda in Hebei has been consolidating. At present, the mainstream price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is around 460-600 RMB/ton, and the downstream mainly purchases on demand. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu market is 550-650 RMB/ton, and the transactions are mostly steady.

From the downstream point of view of caustic soda, the terminal demand of alumina, papermaking and other industries improved slightly after the festival, and the demand for caustic soda increased, which boosted the low price of caustic soda to rebound. However, the downstreams mainly take a wait-and-see attitude towards the price of caustic soda, and the two sides enter the game.

Market outlook

SunSirs analysts believe that the supply of caustic soda has been slightly tightened recently, leading to a slight upward adjustment of manufacturers' quotations. However, on the whole, the demand in the downstream industries of major caustic soda terminals such as alumina, papermaking, and viscose staple fiber has performed generally, and the support for caustic soda is relatively limited. On the whole, it is expected that caustic soda will operate mainly in narrow fluctuations in the market outlook, depending on the downstream market demand.

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