Pre-holiday Funds Diversified to Lighten up, Soybean Meal Market Stabilized and Rebounded

Futures: Soybean meal 2105 continued to rise in shock on Friday, closing at 3515 (up 33), with a total lightening of more than 22,000 lots, and trading volume remained stable. The top 20 capital flows: long positions are dispersed to increase and decrease positions, holdings are slightly reduced, and concentration is fine-tuned; short positions are dispersed and lightened, holdings are reduced, and holding concentration is slightly reduced. The US soybean market fluctuates at a high level, and the February supply and demand report or the phased profit will be exhausted. South American soybeans will be listed soon. Follow-up attention will be paid to its output. Soybean meal's high funds are under heavy selling pressure, but the demand is expected to support the bottom of the price rise. After the market drops to the low support area, it fluctuates and stabilizes and rebounds. Pay attention to the changes in funds around 3500. Short-term or rebound is under pressure and fluctuates. Pay attention to external market trends and key funds sentiment And market expectations.

Strategic analysis: current supply and demand, weather and market sentiment factors alternately affect the market. On the supply side, China continues to actively purchase U.S. soybeans, with high arrivals in Hong Kong, droughts in parts of North America, repeated weather in South America, and rainfall may affect soybean harvesting in South America. In terms of demand, the stock of live pigs has continued to rise, and the slaughter has gradually recovered. The large-scale breeding cycle has been restored, and the demand for soybean meal has been stimulated in the medium and long term. Operational reference: the long-term bullish trend remains unchanged, pay attention to the risk of short-term downturn, the market may drop in the important support area, and you can choose the opportunity to deploy long-term and long-term orders. After a sharp increase, you can reduce your position or short-term hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2105 may rebound in a short-term under pressure and fluctuate. Pay attention to the support situation near 3500 and changes in capital initiative. Short-term operation: continue to hold 5% more capital positions, and close the position after falling below 3500. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3420-3450 area, consider trying more. If the market is under pressure near 3550 and above, consider reducing more and closing more. Swing operation: hold 10% more capital positions or fall back to around 3400 and place midline long orders. Key short-term positions: 3490, 3530.

Market news: According to the USDA supply and demand report, the U.S. soybean carry-over inventory was lowered to 140 million bushels. The previous market average was expected to be 139 million bushels; the U.S. soybean yield continued to decrease by 0.5 bushels to 50.2 bushels/acre. The previous market average was expected to be 50.5 bushels/acre; The U.S. soybean crush is raised by 5 million bucks to 2.2 billion bucks, and the U.S. soybean export is raised by 30 million bucks to 2.23 billion bucks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the data from fixed-point monitoring, the stock of reproductive sows in the country exceeded 41 million and the stock of live pigs exceeded 400 million at the end of November, and the pig production capacity has recovered to more than 90% of the end of 2017. U.S. soybean exports to China have continued to grow, and their proportion has returned to the level of normal years. The sales progress is nearing completion and the profit of China's imports of U.S. soybeans has slowed down. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental governance of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development.

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