SunSirs: Price of Chinese Heavy Rare Earth Dysprosium has Reached a Five-Year High, When will the Rise Stop?

The price of Chinese dysprosium continues to rise, and the market price has reached a 5-year high. As of the 25th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.235 million yuan/ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.21 million yuan/ton, the price of dysprosium metal was 2.725 million yuan/ton, and the domestic terbium price It even reached a 10-year high. On the 22nd, the domestic price of terbium oxide was 8.8 million yuan/ton, and the price of terbium metal was 11 million yuan/ton.

The price of crude oil that has risen sharply in the domestic heavy rare earth market includes one aspect. The first Myanmar customs seal, which has a greater impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, has greatly reduced import sources. The contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to the price of heavy rare earths. Significantly higher. The second domestic rare earth purchasing and storage plan is a big benefit to support domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchasing and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earths account for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply, demand and price of medium and heavy rare earths. Third, the downstream demand has continued to rise in the near future, the application of new energy has grown rapidly, and the demand for permanent magnets has increased significantly. This has brought the most favorable support to the heavy rare earth market. The price of direct products in the heavy rare earth market has continued to rise. Due to the tight supply in the terbium market, the supply and demand are imbalanced. The market price of terbium is even higher.

According to SunSirs monitoring, the price index of the domestic rare earth market is rising. According to the SunSirs rare earth sector index, the rare earth index on January 24 was 468 points, which was the same as January 23, and was down from the highest point in the cycle of 1,000 points (2011-12-06) It is 53.20%, which is 72.69% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The period refers to 2011-12-01 till now).

The domestic rare earth index began to rise in November 2020, and the SunSirs rare earth index has increased by about 100 points in the past three months. The price trend of the domestic light rare earth market cannot be ignored. Domestic new energy vehicle sales have increased, and terminal industries such as wind power and electronic products have developed rapidly. As the epidemic slows down, downstream manufacturers’ capacity utilization rate continues, and demand is mainly for on-demand procurement. The demand for neodymium iron boron is still high. New energy vehicles and The boom in the consumer electronics industry has also boosted the price of rare earths. The data shows that the current global demand for high-performance NdFeB is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector (traditional cars are close to 40%, and new energy vehicles account for more than 12%). The rest are wind power, consumer electronics, inverter air conditioners, and energy-saving appliances. All are in the 8%-10% range. The downstream demand is rising, and the domestic light rare earth market prices continue to rise. Recently, the price of terbium in the domestic heavy rare earth market has reached a 10-year high, and prices in the direct market have continued to rise.

Domestic policies have even given favorable support to the rare earth industry. On January 15, 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions on the "Regulations on the Management of Rare Earths (Draft for Comment)", releasing signals for my country to regulate the management of the rare earth industry and promote high-quality industrial development. There are 29 drafts for comments, clarifying the division of responsibilities for rare earth management, the approval system for rare earth mining, smelting and separation investment projects, and the total index management system, etc., and emphasizes strengthening the management of the entire industry chain of rare earths, strengthening supervision and management, and the state's efforts to develop the rare earth industry With corresponding adjustments, the rare earth industry is developing in a high-quality direction, favorable policies support the development of the rare earth industry, and the domestic rare earth market prices have risen sharply.

The recent overseas economic recovery, especially the recovery of advanced manufacturing, is expected to drive further demand growth. Domestic rare earth demand remains high, domestic rare earth supply is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is acute. SunSirs analysts predict that rare earth market prices may continue to be small in the future rise.

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