SunSirs: Was It a Flash in the Pan? IPA Prices Fell after the Skyrocketing (January 14-21)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of IPA has risen this week. Last Thursday, the average domestic IPA price was 7,300 RMB/ton, and the average price this Thursday was 9,000 RMB/ton. The price increased within the week by 23.29%.

Analysis review

The price of IPA increased in the early period this week, and fell slightly in the later period as the downstream replenishment ended. Due to the downturn in the domestic IPA market at the end of last December, importing shippers ceased operations. Affected by the weather, the supply of IPA in the northern factory decreased, and the main supply was foreign trade contract orders. Recently, export orders have increased and IPA is in short supply in the domestic market, prices have risen rapidly, and quotations have been chaotic. There are many factory closures, and market traders also mostly close and wait and see. As of the 21st, the domestic Shandong IPA negotiation interval was about 8,500 RMB/ton, and the Jiangsu IPA negotiation interval was about 9,000-9,500 RMB/ton. The negotiation interval of Zhejiang IPA was around 9,000 RMB/ton.

As for the raw material acetone, the market rose sharply and then fell back. After a sharp rise this week, the market fell back in the afternoon on the 19th. The market opened sharply in the morning and the offer was firm. After a sharp increase, terminal purchases slowed down. In the afternoon, in view of the relatively sufficient supply of port inventory pressure in the later period, the stockholders held steady on the face and cut prices secretly.. As of the 21st, the negotiated price of acetone was about 6,800-7,100 RMB/ton.

In terms of raw material propylene, the propylene market generally rose stepwise this week. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, last Thursday, the domestic propylene price was 7345.45 RMB/ton, and the average price this Thursday was 7,486.36 RMB/ton. The price increased within the week by 1.92%. As of the 21st, propylene manufacturers had fewer inventories and sales were smooth. Crude oil prices rose on January 19, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

Market outlook

The IPA analyst of SunSirs believes that: at present, foreign export orders are increasing, domestic inventory is small, and the supply of goods is tight. With the end of downstream replenishment, the price of IPA dropped slightly. Due to the rising prices of raw materials acetone and propylene, it is favorable for IPA support. IPA's decline is expected to be relatively limited in the short term, and follow-up focus on changes in news.

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