Shanghai Lead Fluctuated and Fell into a Consolidation Situation

Internal and external trends: On January 19, the LME lead weakened slightly. As of 15:22 Beijing time, it was reported at US$1990/ton, down 0.25% daily. Shanghai Lead's main 2103 contract fluctuated and declined, with daily trading at 15045-14740 yuan/ton, closing at 14785 yuan/ton in late trading, down 1.33% from the closing price of the previous trading day; trading volume was 46558 lots, a daily decrease of 15,478 hands; holding 35894 Hands, an increase of 1,441 hands. Basis strengthened to 115 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead price spread narrowed to -10 yuan/ton from February to March.

Market focus: The US dollar index in Asia fluctuated slightly, and is currently trading at 90.743, up 0.005%. National Development and Reform Commission: The statement that the macro policy will fully decline or even withdraw in 2021 is not true. This year, the macro policy will not undergo a 'swift turn'. Orderly cancel some administrative restrictions on consumer purchases, and encourage cities with purchase restrictions to appropriately increase license plate indicators Launch; Will be revised and issued the 2021 version of the market access negative list. Spot market: Changjiang Nonferrous Metals reported , Some smelters have delayed delivery of long-term orders due to the epidemic. Recently, they are still in the downstream pre-holiday stocking cycle, and the spot market has slightly improved.

In terms of inventory: Shanghai lead warehouse receipts reported 48,238 tons, a daily increase of 0 tons. As of January 18, LME lead stocks were reported at 129,025 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day, and dropped for 13 consecutive days to a one-month low. At the same time, as of the week of January 15, the Shanghai lead stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported 50,811 tons, a weekly decrease of 346 tons.

Main positions: Shanghai Lead's main 2103 contract has 22,747 long positions, 26,318 short positions, 3,571 positions, and a daily decrease of 269 hands. Long positions are larger than short positions.

Market research and judgment: On January 19, the main Shanghai lead 2103 contract fluctuated and fell into a consolidation situation. During the period, the domestic economic data released improved, and the epidemic risk aversion was digested. However, the market is concerned about the US hearings and wary of the dollar index rising. In terms of spot, inventories in the two cities have fallen, and the operating rate of recycled lead has fallen. Some smelters have delayed delivery of long-term orders due to the epidemic. Recently, they are still in the downstream pre-holiday stocking cycle, and the spot market has improved slightly. Technically, the daily KDJ index of the futures price turned down, paying attention to the 14736 golden section support. In terms of operation, it is advisable to wait and see temporarily.

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