SunSirs: China's Rare Earth Market will Rise again and again under the Support of Positive Factors in 2020

According to statistics, the domestic rare earth market price trend will mainly increase in 2020. The price of neodymium in the domestic light rare earth market has increased significantly, and the increase of neodymium oxide and metal neodymium is about 70%. 10-year high.

The price trends of some domestic rare earth products in 2020 are as follows

In 2020, the domestic market price of light rare earths will rise sharply. The market price of neodymium oxide at the beginning of the year is 286,000 yuan/ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 502,500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 75.7%; the price of neodymium metal at the beginning of the year is 362,000 yuan/ton, and the market price at the end of the year is The price of neodymium praseodymium oxide was RMB 284,000/ton at the beginning of the year, and the market price of neodymium praseodymium oxide was RMB 410,000/ton at the end of the year. The price of neodymium praseodymium alloy was RMB 362,000/ton at the beginning of the year. , The market price at the end of the year was 510,000 yuan/ton, an annual increase of 40.88%; the price of praseodymium at the beginning of the year was 342,500 yuan/ton, and the market price at the end of the year was 352,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.92%; the price of praseodymium at the beginning of the year was 650000 yuan /Ton, the market price at the end of the year was 575,000 yuan/ton, and the price trend in 2020 will drop by 11.54%. In 2020, the domestic rare earth market will have a sharp contradiction between supply and demand, and the price of light rare earth will increase significantly.

The market price of heavy rare earths will increase in 2020. According to statistics, the domestic market price of dysprosium oxide at the beginning of the year was 1.75 million yuan/ton, and the market price at the end of the year was 1.93 million yuan/ton, representing an annual increase of 10.29%; the price of dysprosium metal at the beginning of the year was 2125,000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year. The market price is 2425,000 yuan/ton, an annual increase of 14.12%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy at the beginning of the year is 1,72 million yuan/ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 1,920,000 yuan/ton, an annual increase of 11.63%. The domestic heavy rare earth market prices have varying degrees. The increase.

The price trend of China's rare earth market can be roughly divided into three stages

The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of August, when the domestic rare earth market prices are in a fluctuating and rising stage; the second stage is from September to the end of October, when the domestic rare earth market prices rise and fall; and the third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of November. Stage of skyrocketing market prices.

In the first stage, the domestic rare earth market prices fluctuated and increased. During this period, due to the impact of domestic and international public health events, the supply of rare earths was reduced, and the imbalance between supply and demand caused the domestic rare earth market to rise. In the domestic rare earth purchasing and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earths account for a large proportion of the annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply, demand and price of medium and heavy rare earths. Furthermore, considering that Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening effect on the domestic import supply of medium and heavy rare earths, once The purchase and storage plan is implemented as scheduled, which will have a greater impact on the tight supply and demand of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium and the increase in prices. Recently, the market situation is general, and the price of heavy rare earths has remained at a high level. In addition, with the resumption of work and production and the recovery of the terminal new energy vehicle market, the domestic supply of terbium rare earths is very tight, and the domestic prices of terbium rare earths continue to rise. In terms of domestic light rare earths, the price of rare earths has continued to rise due to the positive promotion of the construction of new infrastructure projects across the country. The merchants holding the goods have a clear bullish attitude, and the merchants are reluctant to sell. The rising sentiment in the market is strong, and the epidemic affects overseas rare earth mines. The sharp decline in imports and the reduction in waste recycling and monazite raw materials have caused a decline in domestic rare earth smelting output. The domestic economic recovery has led to the recovery of downstream demand for rare earths, supporting rare earth prices. The domestic light rare earth market prices continue to rise, and the domestic rare earth market prices are gradually recovering. rise.

The second stage is from September to the end of October, when the domestic rare earth market prices rise and fall. At this stage, the price of domestic light rare earths and neodymium series continued to fall. Mainly, the industry's procurement has come to an end. The early-stage downstream stocking is relatively active, and some manufacturers are hoarding more stocks. Recently, the purchasing sentiment has fallen, coupled with the influence of the mood of buying up and not buying down. Domestic prices of Pr and Nd series continued to fall. On the other hand, the recent domestic supply of praseodymium and neodymium rare earths has been normal, coupled with the decline in downstream inquiries, major light rare earth manufacturers have sold off, the downstream felt the shift in market sentiment, the trading situation has declined, and the market prices have fallen. The supply of light rare earths is normal, coupled with the recent inactive purchases, the on-site supply is squeezed, and market prices are under pressure to decline. During this period, the price of domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series also dropped accordingly. Although the domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan for medium and heavy rare earths accounted for a large proportion of the annual output, it is expected to have a greater impact on the supply, demand and price of medium and heavy rare earths. In addition, the current Myanmar customs clearance still affects the domestic market. The import supply of medium and heavy rare earths in China has been tightened, but the purchasing and storage situation is uncertain, the demand on the market has not improved, and the price of the direct line is gradually falling. However, the price of terbium has been at a high level due to the tight supply, but the domestic rare earth downstream procurement is not active. The high on-site inventory has caused the domestic rare earth market prices to fall.

The third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of November, when the domestic rare earth market prices soared. The output of new energy vehicles in China has increased significantly, coupled with the rapid development of wind power, electronic products and other terminal industries. As the epidemic slows down, downstream manufacturers' capacity utilization rate continues, and demand may continue to pick up. The demand for NdFeB continues to increase, but domestic supply The end is still in a contraction trend, and the supply and demand are severely unbalanced, causing the domestic neodymium market price to rise wildly. Recently, the demand and stocking situation of permanent magnet manufacturers has been more active. Because overseas demand has increased compared with before, but with the official entry into force of the "Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China" on December 1, the market expects that China's rare earth exports may be further reduced, and the global rare earth supply Or it will shrink further, and the supply of rare earths will become even more tight at that time, which will promote further increases in domestic market prices. Compared with the sharp increase in neodymium market prices, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have also risen accordingly. The dysprosium terbium market is still a model of the heavy rare earth market. Under the new situation, the strategic value of rare earths is expected to continue to increase. The United States, Japan, and Europe and the United States have made corresponding plans to incorporate rare earths into the national strategic resource reserve plan. The strategic resource advantages of rare earths are prominent. China is a large rare earth reserve country with 37% of the world’s rare earth reserves. China is also a rare earth. As a major exporting country, the country has made corresponding adjustments to the development of the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry is developing in a high-quality direction. The policy is favorable to support the development of the rare earth industry. The domestic rare earth market price trend is strong.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources jointly issued a notice to issue the 2020 total control indicators for rare earth mining, smelting and separation, and tungsten mining total control indicators. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting and separation in 2020 will be 140,000 tons. And 130000 tons, while the quota for rare earth mining in 2019 is 132000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons, and this figure in 2020 is the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Implementation of Policies for Benefiting Enterprises in the Rare Earth Industry", stating that the Rare Earth Office has entrusted the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and the China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the declaration of rare earth enterprises, forming the "Resumption of Rare Earth Industry Production-related support policy compilation. The policy is favorable to support the development of the rare earth industry. At the same time, Sino-US relations are tense. The key products of rare earth Sino-US trade are of great significance.

Sum up

In 2020, the domestic rare earth market price trend will increase to varying degrees. The domestic light rare earth market price has increased significantly, the heavy rare earth market has been at a high level, the price of terbium has risen to a 10-year high, and the country has become more and more serious about the rectification of the rare earth industry. , The amount of rare earth mining will increase in 2020, and the development of new energy vehicles will be faster and faster. At the same time, the "Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China" came into effect on December 1. The market expects that China's rare earth exports may be further reduced, and global rare earth supply may shrink further. Rare earth supply will become even more tense at that time, which will be beneficial to the domestic rare earth market support. Chen Ling, a rare earth analyst at Business Society, predicts that the development of the rare earth industry will continue to improve in 2021. The domestic heavy rare earth market prices may maintain high prices. The domestic light rare earth market is currently at a high level. Prices may remain high in 2021. The possibility of a slight increase.

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