Ruida Futures: Chinese Gold and Silver Rebounded Sharply, Geo-Risks and Economic Stimulus

Market trend: Today, the main Shanghai gold contract 2102 opened high and fluctuated, trading at 380.36-377.46 yuan/g in the day, and closing at 379.64 yuan/g in late trading, up 1.45% from the closing price of the previous day, with a trading volume of 168,000 lots, daily Increased 14347 hands; 63,000 positions held, a daily decrease of 3945 hands; Shanghai Bank’s main 2102 contract opened higher and closed at 5019 yuan/kg in late trading, up 3.74% from the previous day's closing price.

Market focus: (1) The Asian dollar index fluctuated at a low level and is currently trading at 91.095, down 0.05%. (2) It is reported that Pfizer's first batch of new crown vaccines will be delivered on December 15 and Moderna's first batch of vaccines will be delivered on December 22. (3) The two parties in the US Senate jointly proposed a $908 billion stimulus plan, which was rejected by the Republican leader.

Internal positions: Shanghai Gold's main 2102 contract top 20 long positions are 32,762 hands, short positions are 23,216 hands, net long positions are 9,546 hands, a daily increase of 1,449 hands, and more short positions increase. The top 20 long positions of the Shanghai Bank 2102 contract were 157,629 hands, short positions were 133,910 hands, net long positions were 23,719 hands, a daily decrease of 4518 hands, and long positions increased.

External positions: As of December 1, the SPDR Gold Trust gold ETF position was 1,191.28 tons, a daily decrease of 3.5 tons. At the same time, the Shares Silver Trust silver ETF holdings amounted to 16,999.38 tons, an increase of 69.4 tons per day, and the bearish atmosphere was slightly slowed.

Market research and judgment: On December 2, the Shanghai stock market precious metals all rebounded sharply. Among them, the Shanghai Gold Station rose to the 5-day moving average, and the Shanghai Bank rose to the 10-day moving average. The bullish atmosphere returned. During this period, the geopolitical risks have increased. The United States accused China of 'flagrant violation' of its obligations to impose international sanctions on North Korea, and the Indian Navy deployed special forces in Lake Bangong in eastern Ladakh. In addition, the US Senate bipartisan group proposed a 900 billion US dollar stimulus plan, and the plunge in the US dollar index has effectively boosted gold and silver. Technically, the main daily KDJ indicator of gold and silver crossed upwards, but the hourly MACD red column was shortened. In terms of operation, it is recommended that the main force of Shanghai Gold can be backed by 379 yuan/gram for more bargaining, and the stop loss can be referenced at 377 yuan/g; the main force of Shanghai Bank can be backed by 5000 yuan/kg for more bargaining, and the stop loss can be referenced at 4900 yuan/ton.

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